Analysis: Brinkmanship over Stormont’s future ratcheted up

The brinkmanship battle over the future of the Stormont institutions was ratcheted up on Tuesday with Northern Secretary Theresa Villiers offering a bleak assessment after she and Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan met the five main parties.

“The situation looks increasingly grim,” she said. “No resolution was found at this afternoon’s meeting and time is running out.”

It’s unlike Villiers to be so blunt, but the strength of her comments reflected the fact these talks aimed at breaking the political deadlock have been in a circular pattern for some time - with little evidence of the main protagonists being prepared to change route.

In her statement – and in an equally strong article in the nationalist Irish News on Tuesday directed at Sinn Féin and the SDLP – Villiers was trying to concentrate minds.

She was essentially saying to the parties and their supporters that if they continue to reject the welfare reform proposals they could bring down the Northern Executive and Assembly.

Decisions needed

First Minister Peter Robinson was back in harness after his heart attack last week, and spoke in equally direct tones. "We believe we have come to the end of the road; that we are not prepared to fudge issues any further; decisions have to be taken," he declared.

According to Robinson, Stormont officials and the DUP, the money runs out at the end of July. Thereafter, they say, Stormont faces some hard choices: either accept a budget based on the Stormont House Agreement with its promise of £2 billion in grants and loan-raising powers plus other benefits; or “hit the buffers”.

Crashing into the buffers, they say, means the British government taking over responsibility for welfare, which Sinn Féin says it won't tolerate, and/or the permanent secretary of the North's Department of Finance assuming responsibility from the politicians for implementing a hugely reduced budget.

This would be necessary, said Robinson, because the alternative would be for the Northern Executive to operate on a budget with a “black hole” of £600 million.

Villiers was playing to Robinson’s tune. “We now face the real prospect of emergency budget provisions coming into operation by the end of July with a negative impact on front-line public services. Implementation of the Stormont House Agreement is the only way to get things back on track.”

Gerry Adams maintained the party mantra that it's "Tory cuts" that have caused the crisis.

He offered no compromise on welfare that could get everyone off the hook. But he did at least seek to broaden the agenda, referring to matters such as plans to repeal the Human Rights Act and "the failure to introduce a Bill of rights" in Northern Ireland.

SF agenda

Flanagan and the Government in the Republic, in contrast to the direct approach of Villiers, is hoping the wider agenda Sinn Féin appears to be pursuing might allow for a compromise.

There will be more talking this week and next week. But at some stage the welfare nettle must be grasped. The focus is on what Sinn Féin does next.