After the golf dinner, who will replace Hogan as Ireland’s commissioner?

Chatter about Phil Hogan’s possible successor as EU commissioner began shortly after he was first named as one of the attendees at the Oireachtas golf dinner last week, demonstrating among other things the unsentimental nature of politics.

Then, Hogan’s removal seemed a remote prospect; as the controversy escalated, the level of speculation about his successor increased in due proportion.

The first important conversation will take place between Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, and then between the two men and the Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.

They will have to decide if a serving politician should take the role - as is usually the case, politicians being in favour of giving politicians jobs - or someone with an official background but who understands how Brussels works.

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On Wednesday morning, the Brussels based politico.eu website reported that David O’Sullivan, formerly the highest-ranking official in the Commission, could be a possible replacement for Hogan if he goes, while others have suggested that Catherine Day, who succeeded O’Sullivan in that role, might fill the gap.

Another name mentioned on Wednesday night was Andrew McDowell, a director of the European Investment Bank and former Fine Gael economic adviser. A technocrat like Day or O’Sullivan could perhaps hold on to the trade portfolio, Brussels sources say, though politicians in Dublin wouldn’t like it.

Appointing a serving politician from Dublin to the role presents the problem of a byelection. No government ever wants a byelection, but this Government will want to avoid one even more than most. On the other hand, a contest does not have to take place immediately; it could be put off until early 2021, and the Government – assuming it is still in office at that point – has a solid enough majority to survive a defeat.

Fine Gael sources insist that any replacement would be a “Fine Gael nomination”, assuming that Martin and Varadkar have agreed that the next Commissioner – due to be appointed in four years – would be a Fianna Fáil appointment. If this sounds rather like divvying up the spoils of office in advance, this is an important part of making a coalition government work.

Fianna Fáil sources, however, say this not not been discussed and most definitely not agreed.

Fine Gael politicians whose names are circulating include Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, who was recently elected as head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers. The loss of either would be a domestic blow to the party.

The Covid-19 pandemic has seen Simon Harris grow in stature, but his appointment would be a surprise, while Minister for Justice Helen McEntee has European experience, but is new to Cabinet.

There has been recurrent speculation that Varadkar himself might seek the Government’s nomination – in which case he would surely be granted it – but while he is very much at home in Brussels and fascinated by its power politics, it is hard to see him turning his back on both Irish politics and his party at such a relatively young age.

Coveney seems a more likely emissary – as a former MEP and current Minister for Foreign Affairs, he knows Brussels and is known there.

Some of his Fine Gael colleagues believe he might be tempted, though it would mean giving up his domestic political ambitions, generally reckoned not to have been totally extinguished by the victory of Varadkar in the 2017 Fine Gael leadership contest.

One Government source suggested that Richard Bruton, the vastly experienced former minister, could slot in to the role, although if Brussels sources are correct that an Irish politician would be unlikely to retain the trade portfolio, his appointment would bring the danger of a byelection without the benefit of creating an extra Cabinet place for a Fine Gael minister.

Gossip in Brussels also suggests that the name of MEP Mairead McGuinness could be in the frame, though Fine Gael sources play down the prospect. Others press the case for former Taoiseach Enda Kenny, though the prospect is dismissed among contemporary Fine Gaelers.

With Hogan gone, the Government is likely to want to name a successor quickly to draw a line under the affair. The Commission will want someone who can be confirmed by the European Parliament without controversy.

The question of who is getting the big job always transfixes the political class, though the public largely don’t care about it, or are actively hostile to protracted public discussion on the point. Many of them see politicians as only out for themselves anyway.

This sorry episode will have done nothing to persuade them otherwise.