A shifting political landscape

Sinn Féin is likely to emerge as the big winner from the local elections, if public voting intentions identified by the latest IrishTimes/IpsosMRBI opinion poll are borne out next Friday. The party is set to more than double its vote since the last contest in 2009 and it will challenge both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for control of a number of councils.

A margin of error of four per cent in this survey places all three parties within touching distance, but support levels differ significantly within income groups and regions. Middle class respondents and farmers, who are more likely to vote, tend to favour Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, while Sinn Féin attracts its highest support from working class and newly eligible voters. There is evidence Fianna Fáil will struggle to make necessary headway in Dublin. It is clear that local power-sharing deals are likely to emerge on many city and county councils. These informal arrangements may involve Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Independents and have knock-on consequences in preparation for the subsequent general election.

Fine Gael replaced Fianna Fáil as the largest local authority party in 2009 and went on to confirm its ascendancy in the 2011 general election. There is no good news for either party in this poll, however, as voting intentions involving both parties have declined. Fine Gael has dropped nine points to 23 per cent while Fianna Fáil has dropped two points, also to 23 per cent. In contrast, Sinn Féin support has risen dramatically by 12 points to 19 per cent. Independents and others lead the field and have increased their base by eight points to a whopping 28 per cent, but vote transfer fragmentation is likely to occur within this disparate sector. A dismal outcome for the Labour Party is projected, with support dropping precipitously from 14 to 7 per cent.

It would appear that national issues, such as taxation, housing availability, unemployment and water charges have been the defining ones in these elections.

Two-thirds of those questioned rejected the truthfulness of Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams in his denial of IRA membership but a similar proportion said his questioning in relation to the abduction and murder of Jean McConville would have no impact on their voting intentions. While four out of five voters believed former minister for justice Alan Shatter was either right to resign of should have done so earlier over his handling of Garda whistleblower issues – two-thirds said the controversy would have no bearing on how they would vote.

Disillusionment with the political establishment has been reflected in a surge towards Independents, Others and Sinn Féin. The pattern of two conservative parties alternating and dominating in government, which has persisted since the foundation of the State, is coming under immense pressure.