Politicians prepare for critical talks on arms issue

As the Northern Ireland European election count gets under way in Belfast today, politicians are bracing themselves for an intense…

As the Northern Ireland European election count gets under way in Belfast today, politicians are bracing themselves for an intense period of difficult and critical negotiations aimed at finding a way around the decommissioning deadlock.

The outcome of the count, expected this afternoon, may have a significant bearing on these negotiations.

The Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, in particular will be hoping his candidate, Mr Jim Nicholson, holds his seat and polls substantially well to prevent any heave against his leadership.

The question of whether the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, or the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, tops the poll will also be examined carefully by the pro and anti-Belfast Agreement blocs.

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Dr Paisley has staged his campaign as a virtual re-run of the referendum on the agreement and should he top the poll it would be trumpeted by the No camp as a heavy blow to the agreement.

They will also be hoping for a good showing from the other anti-agreement candidate, Mr Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party.

Anti-agreement unionists will aggregate Dr Paisley's and Mr McCartney's vote and contrast it with the turnout for Mr Nicholson and another pro-agreement unionist, Mr David Ervine of the Progressive Unionist Party.

They hope the figures will be in their favour, and thus allow them argue that a majority of unionists are opposed to the agreement.

Should Mr Hume poll better than Dr Paisley it will provide comfort for the Yes camp, particularly for nationalists.

Belfast Agreement supporters will also be examining how all the pro-agreement candidates fared against Dr Paisley and Mr McCartney.

Sinn Fein believes its candidate, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, has polled strongly. Party activists said the Sinn Fein vote came out in strength in Northern Ireland.

They are hoping the Sinn Fein turnout will mirror the party's successes in the South.

With the European election out of the way and the crisis in the Balkans apparently heading to a resolution the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, is expected to refocus his attention on the Northern political process.

Mr Blair may visit the North this week to try to coax the UUP and Sinn Fein into reaching some form of accommodation on decommissioning and the formation of an executive by his deadline of June 30th.

Downing Street said there was no formal plan as yet for him to visit Northern Ireland but that with the election over and Kosovo running in his favour it was likely he "would become much more closely involved" in the Northern negotiations.

Mr Trimble set the scene for detailed negotiations in the coming days when he travelled to Dublin yesterday evening to meet the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.

Last night there was no sign of compromise from either Sinn Fein or the UUP on IRA disarmament or on allowing the D'Hondt mechanism to be triggered to create an executive with two Sinn Fein ministers.

Before leaving for Dublin Mr Trimble told reporters there were some people "in the paramilitary-related parties who are engaged in a flight from reality on this issue (decommissioning).

"The technicalities we can sort out, but the big question is the question for those who are involved with paramilitaries and about their need to face up to those realities," he added.

The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, however, again called on Mr Trimble to confront his dissidents in the UUP.

"When I entered into discussions with John Hume some years ago I had to face down people within republicanism who were against that type of development," he said.

"And John Hume had to do exactly the same. And in his time the Taoiseach of the day, Albert Reynolds, had to face down people who were totally opposed to such a departure. So, at some time the Ulster Unionist Party has to make up its mind on who its leadership is," added Mr Adams.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times