CAO points requirements for a broad range of courses at third level have dropped significantly this year, in a move which could signal the end of the so-called "points race".
With the notable exception of medical-related courses, points are down across a broad range of courses in arts, business, science and social science.
Points for the most popular undergraduate course in the State - arts at UCD - have fallen from 370 five years ago to 350 this year. Points for arts and social science courses are down right across the university sector.
It is expected that more than 75 per cent of all students will secure one of their top three CAO choices this year. In a reversal of the situation two decades ago, there is intense competition between the various third-level colleges for students to fill their places.
Points are also down for most business courses, including NUI Galway, which is down 15 points to 400. The requirements for science courses are also moving downwards, with science at Trinity College Dublin dropping 25 to 415.
With the exception of Trinity, all other universities have seen points for most of their higher degree courses courses decline. In NUI Galway, points for 29 courses are down, while just five have increased. Commerce with German in Galway is down by 140 points.
The private college Dublin Business College, which charges students about €4,000 per year, has also seen increases in points in nine of its 12 courses.
Career experts predict some institutes of technology (IOTs), in particular, could struggle to fill places this year. More than 36,000 places for ordinary degree and certificate courses are available this year, mainly in IOTs.
But based on last year's trends, less than a third of this figure will be filled. This raises questions about the long-term future of some courses offered by the IOTs.
The fall in points - and the ability of virtually all students to secure places through the CAO - also raises questions about the huge post-Leaving Cert (PLC) sector, which offers thousands of places every year. There were fears that points could have increased this year because of the strong grades achieved by many students in the Leaving Cert. Some 17 per cent of students secured 450 or more points this year compared with just 13 per cent two years ago. But these fears were ill-founded.
There are several factors behind the decline in points levels and foremost of these is falling student numbers. Some 3,000 fewer students completed the Leaving Cert this year compared with last year, while the overall figure sitting the exam (51,000) is down from a high of close to 70,000 two decades ago.
There has also been an increase in the number of courses available to students. This year there are more than 800 courses available through the CAO compared with a fraction of this figure in the 1980s.
Career experts do not expect the points race to return in the short term. The number of Junior Cert students was up by about 2,000 this year, but with more places available this is not expected to lead to increased points levels.
Medical and paramedical courses are the one area which bucks the points trend this year. Students needs a minimum of 570 points - the equivalent of six A grades in the Leaving Cert - to have any chance of gaining entry to one of the five medical schools.
John McGinnity, the deputy registrar at NUI Maynooth, said this year's points represents a landmark moment in the CAO process and could signal the end of the traditional points race. He said falling enrolment meant that 2006 was "the best year to take your Leaving Cert for quite a number of years".
For many years, he said, there has been a significant over-demand for places at third level. "This year has seen a rebalancing between the supply and demand for places."
