DRAPIER: The only certainty about the year facing us is that it will be an election year. Exactly when in the year matters less and less. The smart money says late May, but some wise heads in here see tensions between the Coalition partners which could cause the bubble to burst as early as February.
The most immediate such issue is the abortion referendum. Will it be held and, if so, when? Feelings run deep on this issue within the PDs, partly because Mary Harney and Liz O'Donnell - and, indeed, John Dardis - feel uncomfortable espousing a position they previously rejected. They feel uncomfortable, too, with some of the company they now keep.
The other issue causing friction is the Bertie Bowl. In booming times it might have been possible to indulge the Taoiseach, but times are different and the hard-nosed number crunchers who support the PDs are not impressed. Add to that the fact that, come the election campaign, every disaffected group seeking public funding will home in on the Bertie Bowl as an example of extravagance and it is easy to see how the PDs can see the Bowl as an electoral liability - as do some Fianna Fáil backbenchers.
Are either of these issues, or indeed a combination of them, enough to bring down the Government and force an election? It's a big question, but Drapier thinks not.
The PD leadership believes this has been a good Government and sees an advantage in entering the campaign as part of a government seeking re-election rather than in opposition. In the last election, voting transfers between the two parties elected Liz O'Donnell in Dublin South and made possible two extra Fianna Fáil seats in Cork city. It's a big consideration, especially for a party with few options.
And of course it would be logistically much easier to fight an election with all the practical advantages which office confers: ministerial clout, back-up, transport and the like. So, on balance, Drapier does not see the PDs making a break for the border, redefining their own independence and distinctiveness. It is probably too late and would lack conviction.
In Drapier's view, then, the PDs will hang on but will irritate their increasingly tetchy partners whose own nerves have been set a little on edge by some of the recent poll predictions and by the narrowing down, if not quite elimination, of an option most have long taken for granted - the eventual availability of Labour. Reluctant, maybe, but willing, in the national interest of course.
Drapier has no intention of making any predictions about the outcome of the election. It is much too early and we have too many conflicting signals. The national polls, for example, see Fianna Fáil doing well. The TG4 polls and series of by-elections tell a different story. So what is the real story?
Drapier is not a pundit. He has no intention of running the slide-rule over the electoral chances of his colleagues. Life is hard enough without some cold-eyed analyst taking your seat from you before the campaign even starts. People written off at this stage often fight back; others regarded as certs can slip in the final run-in. Nor do we know what the issues will be. Everyone says health will dominate the campaign. Precisely for that reason, Drapier believes the parties will cancel each other out. In fact, we most likely will have a series of mini-issues - the teachers are still resentful; the Eircom investors are fuming about the fat-cat payoffs; the tribunal sleaze will have an impact; special needs groups all have their cases to make. Most of all, perhaps, would be the question of what really happened to the Celtic Tiger.
Any one of these issues could take off, or maybe a complete new issue may appear suddenly. It has happened before - the Sheedy case is an example - and there is no guarantee it won't happen again.
Or the issue may boil down to a simple choice of alternate leaders and governments. Are people happy with what has been achieved over the past five years of unprecedented wealth? Do they trust the other crowd to maintain and sustain that progress? Do they feel a change would be in the national interest, or is the devil you know better than the one you don't?
These are the fundamental questions of all general elections but they have tended to be obscured by the concentration on local and single-issue topics, as exemplified by Tom Gildea and Jackie Healy-Rae.
Contrary to what many of his colleagues think, Drapier believes the bigger national issues will reassert themselves. If this happens, the question of the electorate having a clearly defined choice between two up-front administrations, rather than depending on post-election haggling, becomes more and more crucial.
Drapier said before Christmas that the big story was not the referendum or Nice but the growing antipathy between Labour and Fianna Fáil. And it is in this context that the strong non serviam declaration of Pat Rabbitte must be judged. His view is clear enough. It is not enough to oppose Fianna Fáil - it is essential to offer an alternative.
An agreement, however tentative, between Fine Gael and Labour would transform the next election campaign. More than most, Bertie Ahern understands this. If he sees events moving in this direction, he will have a real incentive to go to the country before it becomes a reality, just as Mr de Valera did in 1948 to forestall the growing power of Seán McBride. On second thoughts, 1948 might not be the best model to follow.
This will be an exciting year. Many of the old familiar faces will leave politics and the place will be the poorer for their absence. There will be much new blood and energy, and that, too, will be welcome. But those are about the only two predictions Drapier will allow himself at this early stage.
Happy new year.