CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: The results in this five-seater could hinge on transfers, writes Lorna Siggins
When Galway West's "top10" election candidates kick off their "kits" for a charity fashion show on May 13th, polling-day performance in the five-seater should be fairly clear. The emphasis has to be on fairly, however, as there are no certainties in this constituency.
Even sitting TDs, the Minister for the Marine, Frank Fahey, and the Minister of State for Rural Development, Éamon Ó Cuív, hate to hear talk about being safe, while the sole Fine Gael TD and parliamentary party chairman, Padraic McCormack, has made something of a virtue out of bad news.
"Opinion polls say my seat is under threat. I hope to prove that wrong," McCormack says in his election literature.
McCormack polled a record (for FG) 7,200 first preferences last time round, but he has been done no favours, with two other candidates, Fidelma Healy-Eames and Michael Patrick McDonagh, also running on the Fine Gael ticket.
The three live within 10 miles of each other on the east side of the city and McCormack should be guaranteed their transfers, but he may have been hoping for a wider geographical spread.
Ms Healy-Eames is the party's first female candidate in the constituency and says the team offers a mixture of experience, youth and gender balance.
Still shaken by the loss of former junior minister, Bobby Molloy, the Progressive Democrats are running three candidates as part of a strategy designed to make the most of a sympathy vote.
Two are members of the city council, the current mayor, Donal Lyons, who works with An Post, and former mayor Declan McDonnell, who moved with Mr Molloy from Fianna Fáil.
Galway county councillor Noel Grealish is regarded as the strongest of the trio, having taken 3 per cent of first preferences in a recent Prime Time/Irish Independent poll. The party's combined showing in that survey was 7 per cent, well short of what it needs.
As in most other constituencies, health and crime are the key issues here, but Galway for a Safe Environment has hosted the first public election debate on the heated issue of incineration, which is part of the Connacht Waste Management Plan. After the debate, the group called on its supporters not to vote for Fianna Fáil, as the only party which appeared to support this waste-treatment option.
However, there are those who remember that Fianna Fáil's senator and budding third TD, Margaret Cox, did break party ranks and clashed with Government policy when the vote on incineration came before the city council. More recently, she clashed publicly with Frank Fahey on plans for the city's second public hospital at Merlin Park.
Co-operation on vote management throughout the sprawling constituency is the Achilles heel of the Fianna Fáil campaign and there is said to be no love lost between Mr Fahey and Ms Cox. However, Éamon Ó Cuív gave her a leg-up when he undertook not to canvass in the south and west wards of the city.
Connemara is Ó Cuív's power base, shared hitherto with Bobby Molloy, and it was clear that Fianna Fáil aimed to move in when the Taoiseach took a flight in late February out to the Aran islands. Out there, Molloy is still considered to be king.
However, one of Sinn Féin's two candidates, Seán Ó Coisdealbha, has been vocal on issues concerning the Gaeltacht area.
Significantly, Ó Coisdealbha was level with party colleague, solicitor Daniel Callanan, at 3 per cent in the Prime Time/Irish Independent poll. Both were two points behind independent councillor Seamus Walsh, formerly of Fianna Fáil, who is based in Oughterard. Last month, Sinn Féin's election constituency agent, Jim Clarke, was given a six-month sentence for allegedly assaulting a Garda detective and the party has put this down to continued official harassment.
Labour's Michael D Higgins - described as a "national treasure" at a recent literary debate in the city - seems comfortable on a rating of 12 per cent in the recent poll, while the Green Party's candidate, Niall Ó Brolcháin, scored 4 per cent. Ó Brolcháin is energetic and hard-working, but the Connacht-Ulster MEP, Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon, is expected to outdo him on transfers.
Ms Scallon was virtually written off by some commentators at the start of the election campaign, and alienated some of her supporters during the abortion referendum, but she has made a career out of proving opinion polls wrong. It is a sobering thought for Fine Gael's McCormack and Senator Cox.
Ms Scallon was also given a boost on May 1st when independent candidate Pat Maher pulled out and weighed in behind her. He is one of a group of five community activists, some with former Fianna Fáil and PD affiliations, who have pledged her support.
Also running as an independent is Ms Eileen Manning , standing on anti-corruption and family law issues.
Sixteen candidates guarantees that Galway West will be decided on those fickle transfers.
Prediction: FF 3, Lab 1, FG 1, but an independent cannot be ruled out.