Outlook brighter as cyclists' fear of rain unfounded

Dublin's weather is not nearly as bad as commuters think it is, according to new research carried out by the city council.

Indeed, so balmy are the capital's climatic conditions that a cyclist can expect to get wet on just one out of every 200 trips, according to an analysis of Met Éireann's weather records.

Director of traffic Owen Keegan found from an accompanying survey of 600 motorists and cyclists that the perception of bad weather was an important factor in influencing car drivers not to take the bike to work.

It also encouraged occasional cyclists to use other forms of transport during the winter.

"Car commuters and cyclists alike have a pessimistic view of the probability of getting wet in Dublin which is very inaccurate when viewed against actual data," says Mr Keegan.

The research shows that a cyclist on a typical 22-minute commute gets wet on only 0.6 per cent of trips in the morning and 0.4 per cent in the evening.

If the threshold is reduced to include drizzle, these figures rise to 5 per cent in the morning and to 4 per cent in the evening.

The survey found that both groups overestimated the frequency of rain in the capital. Almost 20 per cent of drivers and 25 per cent of cyclists wrongly believed it rained at least every second day. Mr Keegan plans further research to show how the probability of getting wet can be further reduced by "rainfall avoidance strategies" such as delaying the start of a journey.

The survey, which was presented yesterday at the Velo City conference in Dublin, also examined the reasons why car drivers are loath to switch to a bike.

A majority of car drivers indicated that they could not be tempted to change to cycling by measures such as cycle-lanes, improved roads or reduction in traffic. "This is not an argument against implementing the various measures," the research notes. "However, it suggests that policy should recognise that most 'car commuters' are simply not in the market to become cyclists."

Another paper presented at the conference showed that cyclists suffer higher doses of air pollution than other types of commuter. "Cycling as a healthier option in Dublin is likely to have the opposite effect on your respiratory and cardiac system as well as increasing the risk of contracting cancer as a direct result of car and bus commuters actively emitting these pollutants," according to Laurance Gill and Aonghus McNabola of TCD's engineering department.

Their research found that cyclists' exposure to particulate matter was 90 per cent higher than that of the pedestrian and 70 per cent higher than that of the car commuter. Cyclists are also exposed to higher levels of benzene, which is linked to leukaemia.