THE RESIGNATION yesterday of UN climate conference president Connie Hedegaard, Denmark's climate and energy minister – handing the chair over to her prime minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen – was followed almost immediately by the circulation of another controversial "Danish text" aimed at hammering out an agreement, writes FRANK McDONALD
Like a previous draft circulated by Mr Rasmussen, with whom Ms Hedegaard has been at odds, the latest was immediately denounced.
“Nothing could more undermine the trust of developing countries than for the Danes to . . . promote their ideas at the expense of encouraging compromise,” said Sorley McCaughey, of Christian Aid.
Ms Hedegaard says she will continue working with environment ministers representing 192 countries who were still trying last night to resolve big differences on crunch issues.
But with just two days to go, they must feel like Flash Gordon’s girlfriend: “Flash, Flash, I love you, but we only have 14 hours to save the Earth!”
Tomorrow, at least 110 heads of state or government representing over 85 per cent of humanity will have just a day – perhaps extending into an all-night session as the climate talks in Kyoto and Bali did – to patch up outstanding issues in many areas. And in the end, whatever emerges from Copenhagen will only do so by consensus.
That’s what makes negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) so difficult, even apart from the immense complexity of the issues involved.
It means, in effect, that no agreement can be adopted without every country consenting, or at least acquiescing, to every line of its well-crafted contents.
As UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said on Tuesday, “this process is not about ramming the interests of a few down the throats of many” – such as the small island states in danger of disappearing, the oil-producing countries concerned about their future revenue, and many other nations that fear cutting their emissions would cost jobs.
In the plenary session last Saturday, what’s at stake was graphically illustrated for delegates when Ian Fry, representing the South Pacific island state of Tuvalu, which fears inundation by rising seas, said: “I woke up this morning crying, and that’s not easy for a grown man to admit . . . The fate of my country rests in your hands.”
Tuvalu has repeatedly called for a legally binding agreement that would oblige developed countries such as the US, Japan and the EU’s 27 member states as well as major “emerging economies” such as China and India, to curb their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to keep global average temperatures at a safe level. But even defining that safe level is a major issue.
The countries that feel most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change – such as the small island states – want the “long-term vision” to be based on an objective to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 350 parts per million, with a view to limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5 degrees.
The EU, US and other developed countries are quite content with a cap of 450 parts per million and temperature increase of two degrees.
But Africa, where climate change is already having severe impacts, sees this as quite inadequate and even as a “death sentence”, given that the UN’s scientists have said the continent could experience a 3.5 degree rise.
The other crunch issues are well-known: 1. to what extent will developed countries, including the US, pledge to cut their GHG emissions?; 2. how much are they prepared to contribute in both short-term and long-term finance to aid developing countries?; and 3. what further pledges will China, India and other major economies make to the global effort?
The US delegation has aggravated others, including the EU, by objecting on technical grounds to crucial elements of the current negotiating texts, resulting in these being put in new square brackets.
And there was speculation yesterday that this was to allow President Barack Obama to play the role of Flash Gordon tomorrow.
With so many world leaders flying in for the Copenhagen summit, it seems inconceivable that an agreement will not be reached.
As European Commission president José Manuel Barroso noted last night, it’s in the tradition of these UN conferences, going back to the Earth Summit in 1992, for a deal to be done at the last minute.