A year after replacing his legendary brother as president of Cuba, Raul Castro has had more success abroad than at home where Cubans say they are still waiting for promised economic improvements.
Early expectations that he would reform the island’s economy have been replaced by questions about how and when he plans to make things better for ordinary Cubans, but Cuba’s foreign policy has flourished, experts say.
His low-key leadership contrasts with the bombast and big political marches that older brother Fidel Castro favoured during his 49 years in power. But so far any differences have been visible only at the margins of the communist system they built together after taking power in a 1959 revolution.
As defence minister and second in command from the revolution’s early days, Raul Castro operated in the shadow of his more charismatic brother until July 2006 when intestinal surgery forced Fidel Castro to provisionally put him in power.
On February 24th, 2008, the national assembly elected the younger Castro president after Fidel Castro, who is now 82, resigned. He quickly raised hopes for change by talking about the need to raise salaries and allowing Cubans to buy mobile phones and computers and go to previously off-limits tourist hotels. He also launched agricultural reforms to provide land for private farmers to increase food production.
The changes led many in Cuba and the outside world to think the new leader had set about reshaping one of the world’s last communist economies. But the pace of change slowed, then appeared to grind to a halt when later in the year three hurricanes struck the island at the same time as the world economy plunged into crisis.
“Raul promised greater efficiency and productivity, but largely failed to deliver,” says Cuba expert Dan Erikson at the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue. Cubans, who receive various social benefits but earn on average just $20 (€16) a month, said their early hopes had faded amid economic difficulties.
“Few changes have been seen. Concrete things like some improvement in the quality of life, salaries, are still out of sight,” says restaurant worker Diego Valdez (41).
“It seemed like Raul began with many ideas to change and improve our lives,” says construction worker Gabriel Mendez (33). “Now we can stay in hotels and buy cellular phones, but in real life that’s only for a few. Most people work to eat.”
Cuba experts said the natural and man-made disasters had made economic improvement harder, but they faulted Raul Castro for not pushing bolder reforms. Phil Peters of the Lexington Institute in Virginia says although Raul blames problems such as an ageing population, poor work incentives and low rates of job generation, he has failed to make changes matching the challenges. “We have seen a dire diagnosis, but only a mild prescription,” Mr Peters said.
Raul Castro (77) is considered more pragmatic than Fidel Castro. But he is not a radical departure from his brother. “Raul has carried on where Fidel left off, he is following the same political line . . . As with Fidel, it is about preserving the revolution,” said Sarah Stephens of the Centre for Democracy in the Americas policy group in Washington.
Internationally, Raul Castro has had more success. He has patched up troubled relations with the European Union, resurrected an old alliance with Russia and maintained strong ties with key trade partners Venezuela and China while winning diplomatic support across Latin American against US policy long aimed at toppling the Cuban government.
In December, Cuba joined the Rio Group of 23 Latin American and Caribbean nations, ending years of isolation.
Six Latin American presidents, including close ally Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, have visited Cuba since the start of this year, all of them denouncing the 47-year-old US trade embargo. Ms Stephens said the regional support would give Cuba greater confidence in dealing with the US, where new president Barack Obama has said he is willing to talk to Cuban leaders and ease aspects of the embargo, particularly restrictions on travel and remittances to the island.