West Africa: The punishing rebel offensive on Monrovia has surprised few in Liberia's besieged capital.
It shattered a three-way stalemate between embattled President Charles Taylor, an aggressive rebel force and President Bush, Liberia's reluctant saviour.
After two fierce offensives on Monrovia in the past month, Mr Bush held out the possibility of sending between 500 and 2,000 US troops to shore up the fragile peace.
He came under pressure from Britain, France and many desperate Liberians to intervene in a country founded by freed US slaves in the early 1800s.
But Mr Bush hesitated. His advisers were divided and he himself may have been haunted by the ghosts of the 1993 Somalia mission, which ended in a bloody humiliation for the US military.
In place of a snap decision, Mr Bush sent a 32-strong team of military experts to assess the conditions for a possible deployment. After that he refused to be drawn on the question, saying he was awaiting their report.
Mr Bush also demanded that Mr Taylor step down first. The wily warlord-turned-president promised to go, but only after the US troops landed.
The current offensive by the main rebel group, Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), may decide the issue. A ceasefire agreement that both sides were never really serious about has completely collapsed, resulting in mounting civilian casualties and a sharp escalation of the humanitarian crisis in the seaside capital.
Hundreds of thousands of people are crammed into the city centre. Having fled combat in the surrounding countryside, now they find themselves pinned between the rebel advance and the Atlantic Ocean.
Meanwhile Mr Taylor has vowed to fight to the death to defend the city. He accuses the US of supporting the LURD, an accusation denied by Washington. However the US is a close ally of neighbouring Guinea, which is covertly sponsoring the rebels.
The US is likely to be criticised for holding out the possibility of intervention - prolonging the fragile ceasefire - but failing to act. Thousands of Liberians watched bitterly yesterday as journalists and aid workers were evacuated from the US embassy by helicopter while their pleas for help fell on deaf ears.