ALMOST HALF of Fianna Fáil’s 71 TDs have said they will vote in favour of Taoiseach Brian Cowen ahead of tonight’s vote of confidence at the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party.
Some 35 have said they will support the motion of confidence when it is put to the vote at the parliamentary party. Minister for Transport Noel Dempsey disclosed he would be supporting Mr Cowen. His speech in support of Mr Cowen at the Meath West convention last night brought the Taoiseach’s declared supporters to within one of the 36 required to carry the motion.
As of last night, 12 TDs have said they will vote against the motion. However, some 22 TDs have yet to show their hand, having refused to divulge their intentions yesterday or having not been contactable.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said last night he believed the contest would “go to the wire”. A number of his supporters also said yesterday that the fact that the vote will be taken by secret ballot means the numbers being used by Mr Cowen’s supporters could not be fully relied on and a substantial number would switch allegiances.
Sources close to Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan said last night he would announce today he was backing Mr Cowen and would vote confidence in him tonight. The Longford-Westmeath TD Mary O’Rourke was also expected to vote for Mr Cowen. Supporters of the Taoiseach last night said the backing of Mr Lenihan – who has leadership ambitions – would sway the contest decisively in the Taoiseach’s favour.
Mr Martin is the only senior Minister who has said he will vote against the Taoiseach tonight. Yesterday, former minister for defence Willie O’Dea and Minister of State Billy Kelleher both said they would also vote “no” in the confidence vote.
The only Ministers who have not stated their position are Minister for Tourism Mary Hanafin and Minister for Justice Dermot Ahern. Ms Hanafin was said by colleagues to be in favour of a new leader but would not publicly disclose her position when appearing on RTÉ’s Frontline last night. Mr Ahern is recuperating from an operation in hospital and arrangements will be made to allow him vote from there.
Speaking yesterday evening Mr Cowen said he was “absolutely convinced” he had the numbers to win.
“We are in a fight and we need a fighter to lead FF into the general election. The question is: who is best equipped to lead that fight?” he said.
Mr Cowen, speaking on RTÉ, said Fianna Fáil could recover support,pointing out public opinion has never been so volatile. “What Fianna Fáil will do under my leadership is we will get out and fight for this party honestly.”
Mr Martin told The Irish Times last night he had not solicited support from Cabinet members, although he had discussed the issue with a number of Ministers prior to this week. He said: “It’s very, very tight is my prediction. It’s very close to call. A lot of TDs are holding their counsel to themselves, and it seems to me it’ll go to the wire.”
The meeting will begin in Leinster House at 5.30pm with Mr Cowen making an opening statement proposing the motion. No specific time has been set aside for the timing of the vote but is not expected to be taken before 8pm.
An extensive survey of the party’s TDs has been carried out by The Irish Times since last Thursday. Some 34 members, almost half the party’s TDs, said they backed the Taoiseach.Several other TDs said on local and national radio stations yesterday they would back Mr Cowen. They included Maire Hoctor, Timmy Dooley and Niall Blaney.
A large number of TDs cited as reasons the lateness of the leadership heave; confusion in the minds of voters over a separate Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil, and the sense a change of leader would make no difference electorally.
Several also expressed criticism of Mr Martin staying on as Minister while stating no confidence in Mr Cowen. Mr O’Dea, the TD for Limerick East, said Fianna Fáil faced electoral annihilation under Mr Cowen.
