Number of cardinal electors to fall to 105

The number of cardinals eligible to elect a successor to Pope John Paul will be reduced to 105 on Saturday, 15 less than the maximum allowed.

Cardinal John O'Connor, of New York, will be 80 that day, January 15th, and becomes ineligible to vote in papal elections. Ireland's only cardinal, Dr Cahal Daly, has already lost his vote - is in a similar position. He he was 80 in October 1997.

In his 1970 Romano Pontifici Eligendo document, Pope Paul VI fixed the maximum numer of cardinals who could take part in a papal election at 120 and ruled that cardinals over 80 on the day before a Pope's death would be ineligible to vote in the conclave following. There are 153 cardinals, 47 of them over 80.

The names of new cardinals are announced by the Pope at a specially convened consistory. On average since 1983 they have taken place every 2 1/2 years. The last was in February 1998. It is expected one will be held later this year, probably in October, when the 10th ordinary synod of bishops is scheduled for Rome. Generally, the holding of a consistory is announced four to six weeks in advance.

Sources in Rome say that while the Archbishop of Armagh, Dr Sean Brady, is on most people's list for elevation, it is by no means certain. The Pope is said to be anxious to increase representation in the College of Cardinals from a greatly under-represented church outside Europe. At least four Archbishops who head congregations at the Vatican would be expected to be elevated also.

Of the 105 (as of Saturday next) cardinal-electors, 93 were elevated by Pope John Paul and 12 by Pope Paul VI. By the end of this year the number of cardinals eligible to vote is expected to be down to about 100, the lowest figure for many years. Of the 105 cardinals eligible to vote, as of the coming weekend, 45 are European, with 60 from the rest of the world. Of the Europeans, 17 are Italian, four German, four Polish, four Spanish, three French, two Belgian, two Slovakian, with one each from Austria, Bosnia, the Czech Republic, Holland, Hungary, Lithuania, and Scotland.

Of the 60 non-Europeans, 12 are from North America (10 from the US), 18 from Latin America (six from Brazil), just 13 represent the African continent, 12 are Asian and four represent Australia (2) New Zealand (1), and Western Samoa (1). There is one from the Middle East.