GEORGIA: US-educated lawyer Mr Mikhail Saakashvili seems certain to crown a successful drive to topple Mr Eduard Shevardnadze with victory in Georgian presidential polls tomorrow, but faces huge problems in reviving the volatile ex- Soviet state.
Mr Saakashvili (36), a former justice minister who quit in protest over government corruption, led a "people's revolution" that toppled President Shevardnadze, his former mentor and erstwhile Soviet foreign minister, in November.
Three lawyers, a former regional governor and the head of an organisation for the disabled will run against him. But they are given little chance of prevailing in a ballot focusing on issues of high-level corruption, poverty and the separatism that has plagued Georgia since independence over 10 years ago.
"These elections are absolutely predictable. No one has doubts about Mikhail Saakashvili's victory," Mr Archil Gegeshidze, an analyst at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, said.
Though the outcome appears certain, the election will all the same be closely watched in the West and in Russia and Georgia's other neighbours because of a $2.7 billion pipeline due to take Caspian oil across its territory to Western markets.
A grenade attack on December 29th on the headquarters of an independent TV station that played a part in Mr Shevardnadze's downfall underscores the ever-present threat of violence.
Allegations of vote-rigging in a parliamentary election ignited the popular anger that drove out Mr Shevardnadze; international observers will monitor Sunday's poll.
Georgia's breakaway Black Sea province of Abkhazia and its wayward South Ossetia region are both cold-shouldering the poll.
But the independent-minded Adzhara province, run by maverick leader Mr Aslan Abashidze, has said it will take part.
Central Election Commission chief Mr Zurab Chiaberashvili said Georgia needed to ensure a fair poll since election fraud was a sensitive issue, though some analysts say a low turnout following New Year holidays may cast a shadow over proceedings.
"There is a tension in society. It will help to mobilise people to go to the polling stations," said analyst Mr Gia Nodia.
An important goal for Mr Saakashvili will be retaining the support of acting president Ms Nino Burdzhanadze and State Minister Mr Zurab Zhvania - two other players in Georgia's revolution.
The future president will also need to overhaul the economy. Half of Georgia's 4.5 million people live on less than $4.15 a day. - (Reuters)