PRESIDENT Nelson Mandela's African National Congress faces a tough election challenge tomorrow in KwaZulu Natal, South Africa's most populous province.
The ANC is the majority party in seven of South Africa's nine provinces. The exceptions are the Western Cape where the National Party last month fended off an ANC challenge in local government elections and KwaZulu Natal.
The local government election in KwaZulu Natal in the first trial of strength in the province between the ANC and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi's Inkatha Freedom Party since the IFP surprisingly defeated the ANC in the province in April 1994.
KwaZulu Natal is the only province where the ANC failed to capture the majority of black votes in that election.
Rivalry between the two parties has been described as an undeclared war. Paradoxically, however, the run up to this election has seen a decline in the daily toll of fatalities from political violence. The daily average is now approaching one a day, down from more than four a day in 1994 and more than two a day last year.
Hopes have been raised that the contest is being institutionalised, and that the adversaries are seeking triumph in elections rather than victory on the battlefield.
Several factors are involved in the decline of violence and the corresponding surge in optimism battle fatigue peace initiatives by the churches, emphatically endorsed by Mr Mandela and Chief Buthelezi and, above all, intensified policing involving the deployment of specialised task units with 40,000 soldiers in an auxiliary role.
Predicting the result is a hazardous task, largely because there are no reliable opinion polls. The levels of violence still make it difficult to conduct surveys in some areas.
Even where research has been possible, experience points to a strong pro IFP "lie factor". This accounts for the failure of predictions of an ANC victory to materialise in 1994.
Mindful of these perils, Prof Alexander Johnston of the University of Natal predicts a repeat of the 1994 result, when the IFP won just over 50 per cent of the vote and the ANC a fraction over 33 per cent, with smaller parties sharing the remainder.
Prof Johnston reasons that voting patterns have been largely frozen because most blacks who constitute more than 80 per cent of the population live in political blocs or "no-go" areas dominated either by the ANC or the IFP. These areas are closed to all but the dominant party.
The Human Rights Committee lists 52 "no-go" areas in the province, 30 of which are controlled by the IFP and 22 by the ANC.
Without vigorous canvassing by rival parties, the chances of a "floating vote" and hence of critical changes of political allegiance are radically reduced, Prof Johnston says.