A look at some of the most crucial constituencies
CORK NORTH CENTRAL:
1997: FF 35.53%; FG 30.16%; Lab 5.27%; PDs 7.51%; GP 3.04%; SF 3.76%; DL 7.15%; NP 2.53%; CS 1.77%; WP 1.24%; Others 2.04%.
Outgoing TDs: Dan Wallace, Billy Kelleher and Noel O'Flynn (FF); Bernard Allen and Liam Burke (FG).
Former Democratic Left TD, Kathleen Lynch, now running for Labour, is expected to return to the Dail at the expense of Fine Gael's second candidate, Cllr Gerry Kelly, Will outgoing Fianna Fail TD, Noel O'Flynn find favour with voters here and get a substantial increase in first preferences after his controversial remarks about asylum seekers? However, FF's efforts to hold onto its three seats should not be threatened even if he does, assuming that it gets the benefit locally of a national swing to the party. FG's Bernard Allen is expected to head the poll.
DUBLIN SOUTH EAST:
1997: FF 25.79%; FG 27.38%; Lab 16.67%; PD 10.97%; GP 11.71%; WP 1.89%; NP 3.19%; SWP 1.12%; NLP 0.63%; Others 0.65%.
Outgoing TDs: Eoin Ryan (FF); Frances Fitzgerald (FG); Ruairi Quinn (Lab) and John Gormley (GP).
Could Fine Gael be left with no TD in Dublin South East - one of the party's strongholds in the past? Outgoing FG TD Frances Fitzgerald is threatened on all sides. Up to recently, it had been believed that the Progressive Democrats's Michael McDowell and outgoing Green TD John Gormley would battle once more for the last seat. However, first preferences could see her battling instead against McDowell, or, indeed, Fianna Fáil's Chris Andrews. She will depend critically on transfers from running mate, Colm MacEochaidh. A second FF seat here would pave the way for single party government. Andrews could get critical transfers from Sinn Féin's Daithi Doolan, who is expected to poll well in Ringsend - though Gormley can expect to benefit considerably from these as well. Barring accidents, FF Minister of State Eoin Ryan and Labour leader Ruairi Quinn should be safe.
DUBLIN WEST:
1997: FF 33.19%; FG 16.94%; Lab 12.11%; PD 7.61%; GP 4.32%; SF 5%; SP 16.21%; WP 2.83%; Others 1.79%.
Outgoing TDs: Brian Lenihan (FF), Austin Currie (FG), Joe Higgins (SP) and Liam Lawlor (Ind).
Labour's former Minister of State Joan Burton seems set to return, even though Dublin West is now a three seater. The key issue in the first count is whether Fine Gael's Sheila Terry will challenge her for the third seat. A stronger performance by Burton on one side, and Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald on the other, could impact on outgoing Socialist Party TD Joe Higgins's vote, even though he has had a high profile in the 28th Dail. FF's Brian Lenihan will be disappointed if he does not head the poll, though FF will need a national swing of seismic proportions for his running mate, Deirdre Doherty Ryan, to succeed. The transfers of Progressive Democrats candidate Tom Morrissey should be crucial. In 1997, his 3,050 first preferences elected FF's Liam Lawlor, who has now quit politics.
DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL:
1997: FF 34.43%; FG 24.95%; Lab 10.41%; PD 5.01%; GP 3.95%; SF 4.77%; DL 11.3%; SP 0.81%; WP 0 .73%; SW 0 .54%; NLP 0.23%; Others 2.88%.
Outgoing TDs: Ben Briscoe and Sean Ardagh (FF), Gay Mitchell (FG) and Mary Upton (Lab).
Sinn Fein's Aengus O Snodaigh's performance will be closely watched, though he will need to be well over half the quota on the first count to be in with a chance. The constituency has gained an extra seat since 1997. The retirement of FF's Ben Briscoe leaves party colleague, Dublin Lord Mayor Michael Mulcahy, in with a serious chance. However, the first count should show whether the move south of the Liffey from Dublin Central by outgoing FF TD Marian McGennis has succeeded. Outgoing TD Sean Ardagh should poll well. FG's Gay Mitchell has aided running mate Cllr Catherine Byrne though careful vote management would be needed if she is to be elected. Labour is determined to ensure that outgoing TD Mary Upton returns, and that former Democratic Left TD Eric Bryne will see off the SF threat. The showing by anti-immigration candidate Aine Ni Chonaill is worthy of note.
LIMERICK EAST:
1997: FF 39.72%; FG 26.51%; Lab 9.19%; Lab 12.42%; GP 1.61%; DL 6.85%; NP 3.08%; Others 0.61%.
Outgoing TDs: Willie O'Dea, Eddie Wade (FF), Michael Noonan (FG), Des O'Malley, (PDs), Jan O'Sullivan (Lab).
Can Fine Gael Leader Michael Noonan bring his home running mate, Sen Mary Jackman, or can the Progressive Democrats's Cllr Tim O'Malley perform a Lazarus-like rescue of the party fortunes in its birthplace? Failure to secure a second FG seat would be a deep disappointment to Noonan, but he may have a sizeable number of transfers to offer Jackman. FF Minister of State Willie O'Dea should top the poll, so early signals that his strongly personal vote is transferring to his running mates, outgoing TD Eddie Wade, and Cllr Peter Power may offer FF an outside chance of three seats. O'Dea's claim for a senior ministry would then be unstoppable. Independent candidate, and former FG member, Ald. Pat Kennedy, could provide Jackman with crucial transfers. Jan O'Sullivan needs to show on the first count that she has united the Labour/DL vote in the constituency.
DUN LAOGHAIRE:
1997: FF 25.83%; FG 30.96%; Lab 8.66%; PD 8.55% GP 5.09%; DL 13.89%; CS 3.69%; Others 3.34%.
Outgoing TDs: David Andrews, Mary Hanafin (FF), Sean Barrett, Monica Barnes (FG), Eamon Gilmore (Lab)
Fine Gael's nightmare is that they could end up with just one seat, or even nothing in Dun Laoghaire - a constituency that has for decades produced two FG "bankers". The first count will show whether Sen Liam Cosgrave, Sen Helen Keogh or newcomer John Bailey can triumph over stiff competition. In 1997, FF did well to win two seats here when newcomer Mary Hanafin joined David Andrews. Despite the latter's replacement on the ticket by his son, Barry, FF should face little difficulty in retaining the seats, particularly if they share the first count vote reasonably equally. Labour's Niamh Bhreathnach is pushing hard to return to the Dáil to join Eamon Gilmore, who should be in line to top the poll. Note carefully the performance of the Green Party's Ciaran Cuffe, particularly if there have beens signs earlier that the party is on a roll in the capital. The PD's Fiona O'Malley will do well to make an impact.
SLIGO-LEITRIM:
1997: FF 40.41%; FG, 36.63%; Lab 10.86%; PDs 1.65%; SF 7.10%; CS 3.01%; Others 0.34%.
Outgoing TDs: Matt Brennan and John Ellis (FF), John Perry and Gerry Reynolds (FG).
Independent candidate Marian Harkin is tipped to be one of the four TDs elected here. But at which party's expense? Outgoing FG TD Gerry Reynolds's early showing will indicate whether predictions about his demise were accurate. His fellow FG TD, John Perry, is expected to confirm that he has consolidated his Sligo base, once the preserve of former FF minister and European Commissioner Ray MacSharry. Much interest will focus on whether the business difficulties of outgoing FF TD John Ellis has affected his Leitrim base - one that gave 92% of the party vote there last time. The performance of FF's Sligo-based candidates, Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon, will determine whether FF can hold the seat vacated by the retiring TD, Mattie Brennan. Sinn Féin is expecting a strong showing from Cllr Sean McManus, though his transfers, along with those of Labour's Declan Bree, could influence the destination of the last seat.
GALWAY WEST:
1997: FF45.94%; FG22.21%; Lab 10.07%; PDs 12.27%; GP 3.44%; SF 2.51%; NP 1.99%; NLP 0.43%; Others 1.14%.
Outgoing TDs: Frank Fahey and Eamon O Cuiv (FF), Padraic McCormack (FG), Michael D Higgins (Lab) and Bobby Molloy (PD).
Following the departure of the Progressive Democrats's Bobby Molloy,
Fianna Fail will have high hopes that Sen Margaret Cox can join the Minister for the Marine, Frank Fahey, and Minister of State, Eamon O Cuiv, in the Dáil. The first preferences will show if the PDs' surprising strategy of running three candidates, Noel Grealish, Donal Lyons and Declan McDonell, leaves them with a base on which to build in the future. Equally, Independent MEP, Dana Rosemary Scallon's first-count figure will show if she has made any impact despite her late entry, and whether she has any sources for transfers. In the past, outgoing Fine Gael TD, Padraic McCormack, has been far ahead of his party running mates, and needed little support from them. However, this may change, if the party's vote falls.
LAOIS-OFFALY:
1997: FF 49.85%; FG 23.38%; Lab 11.61%; PDs 6.51%; NP 1.89%; NLP 0.23%; Others 1.54%.
Outgoing TDs: Brian Cowen, John Moloney, Sean Fleming (FF); Tom Enright, Charles Flanagan (FG).
Can Tom Parlon win a vital extra seat here for the Progressive Democrats? The task will be a tough one. The 1997 experience of Labour's Pat Gallagher, who failed to get elected despite having nearly 7,000 first preferences, shows that Parlon will have to have well in excess of this figure after the first count to be in contention. The Taoiseach's call for FF transfers to the PDs has not met with an echo from the FF ticket. The first count will also show if FF has managed to protect its vote from Parlon's predations. The task is complicated by the popularity of the local political heavyweight, Minister for Foreign Affairs Brian Cowen, and by county loyalties. More likely, however, a national swing to FF might see FG's Charlie Flanagan and Olwyn Enright under pressure from Parlon. The boxes from the Birr area will indicate if Enright has retained her father, Tom's base.