Is a new world economic order emerging from the rubble of the Asian economies? The past two hectic weeks in south-east Asia suggest we are witnessing a shift, not only in the economic, but in the geopolitical balance of the region. But the foundations of the new order may be unstable and its final shape uncertain.
The turmoil has two constants - the dollar and China. The dollar is again almighty in Asia. Everyone, from Hong Kong executives to Bangkok taxi-drivers, is stashing the greenbacks as the one trustworthy currency in a shaky world.
The dollar is strong because the US economy is strong. The immense and enervating US budget deficits of the 1980s - when people in trouble sought refuge in gold or Swiss francs - have disappeared. The US currency is the measure for Asia of its currency values.
China, for many decades Asia's most unstable country, has been a centre of calm as the storm rages around its borders. It shows a maturity and concern about events in the region which indicate an awareness that it is an emerging superpower.
The catalyst for the unfolding arrangements has been Indonesia, whose currencies and stocks collapsed dramatically last week on evidence that President Suharto would not undertake the reform he promised the International Monetary Find in exchange for a $47 billion bail-out in October.
As this threatened to pull down the region's already battered economies and spread Asia's economic flu to the rest of the world, the IMF sent to the region managing director Mr Michel Camdessus and the White House sent senior Treasury official Mr Lawrence Summers and Defence Secretary Mr William Cohen.
President Clinton widened the global effort to prevent Indonesia's collapse into chaos by working the phones, twice calling Jakarta and the leaders of Japan and Singapore. The healthy US economy is Mr Clinton's crowning glory and suddenly Asia's meltdown is threatening to spark a global recession, not to mention new and dangerous social and political instability in the region.
Other Asian leaders, from Tokyo to Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, also pressed the 76-yearold Indonesian leader to release his family's grip on lucrative state monopolies: but it was a US initiative that paid off on Thursday when Jakarta detailed a new austerity package.
While the leadership came from Washington, it was not clear if the White House saw the increasingly unpopular Mr Suharto as the problem or the problem-solver. Mr Summers, Mr Cohen and Mr Camdessus then set off separately around the region - and for all three the ultimate destination was Beijing.
On the way, Mr Cohen made speeches outlining US concern about the potential for civil unrest and inter-state conflict as harsh austerity measures hit ordinary people and reignite nationalism.
Already, there have been riots in Indonesia and the beginning of a flow home of migrant labour to countries such as Thailand, where unemployment is rising rapidly. In Singapore, the US Defence Secretary raised the instability spectre to reinforce the US argument for maintaining 100,000 troops in the region.
Outlining the central theme of US engagement, he said Asia had potential flashpoints from Korea to Taiwan "and beyond" which, if ignited, "would have scorching effects on the security and economies in Asia, North America and around the globe."
But Mr Cohen was careful to say Washington does not see China as an adversary but as a "responsible and co-operative great nation." Chinese co-operation is now crucial in preventing an even deeper crisis.
If Beijing devalued the yuan to prevent its exports being undercut, it could force the Hong Kong dollar to break its fixed link with the US dollar - an event which economists say would cause financial chaos, producing a new round of competitive devaluations, with incalculable results.
China has told Mr Summers it will not devalue and will likewise promise Mr Camdessus in Beijing today. Mr Summers said the pledge not to devalue was the most important contribution China could make to Asian stability. Beijing is thus winning high praise in the US for its "responsible" attitude, which China knows will reinforce its case for World Trade Organisation membership later this year.
In the absence of economic leadership from Japan, China has emerged with strengthened authority as a regional power. The West is now fully aware the management of the Chinese economy by the highly rated prime minister-in waiting, Mr Zhu Rongji, could determine the course of the crisis.
But China has simultaneously been scathing about the US role, accusing Washington through the official media of forcing east Asia into submission. But this smacks more of semantics than belligerence. Hong Kong's troubles are worrying for both East and West. The former British colony has had a see-saw week; its biggest investment bank, Peregrine Holdings, collapsed and its stock market went on a rollercoaster.
There is a tangible sense of a gathering storm in the territory, but a full-scale banking crisis is unlikely - Hong Kong's institutions are well financed and transparent. But property values are falling and the Hong Kong economy is based on property.
What is significant is that China has kept out - Peregrine's fall hurt Chinese shares but the Bank of China did not intervene - and has not attempted to dictate to Hong Kong's authorities. Chief Secretary Mr Anson Chan said they had not had a single telephone call from across the border telling them "how we should or should not handle the turmoil."
The Asian crisis has exposed a failure in global capitalism where the old rules did not work and the new ones are only dimly perceived. In this period of crisis management, the future is unclear. But the globe-trotters will return to the West next week sure about one thing. If the situation is not controlled, then a world recession is around the corner.