New boundaries and FF animus threaten Cassidy

Constituency profile: Longford-Wesmeath:A new constituency with some old faces, Longford-Westmeath will be a weathervane for wider national trends. Fine Gael needs two seats here if it is to have any hope of forming the next government; the same result for Fianna Fáil would bode well for its prospects of staying in power.

This contest features reputedly the youngest candidate in the State, Fine Gaeler Peter Burke (24), as well as Fianna Fáil's Mary O'Rourke, the country's best-known political pensioner.

Longford-Westmeath is something of a geographical oddity, as a large slice of north Westmeath has been hived off and put with the Meath West constituency. Fianna Fáil's Donie Cassidy is reckoned to be worst affected; as a resident of Castlepollard he won't even be able to vote for himself. The boundary changes have also seen Longford and Westmeath paired once again for electoral purposes; in the last election, Longford was joined with Roscommon while Westmeath was a standalone constituency.

Four sitting TDs and two Senators are in the running for the four seats, so it is certain there will be blood on the canvass. Only one of these, Labour's Willie Penrose, is a certainty, while one is a no-hoper, Mae Sexton of the PDs. All that can be said of the remaining three seats is that they will be divided between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The little-disguised antipathy between O'Rourke and Cassidy is the most engaging aspect of the contest, with O'Rourke making every effort to topple the party colleague who bested her in the last election. The former minister needs to engineer a recovery in her home town of Athlone if she is to be certain of a seat.

Fianna Fáil is allowing its candidates canvass across the entire constituency this time, in contrast to the carve-up attempted in the last election. O'Rourke claims she was "done" on that occasion because party headquarters gave 70 per cent of the area to Cassidy.

"Longford will always support Longford," says one observer of the junior partner in this constituency coalition, and this explains why Fianna Fáil's only candidate from the county, Peter Kelly, is widely tipped to return to the Dáil. The expected collapse in support for Sexton, who is also from Longford, can only benefit the low-profile TD from Longford town.

That leaves showband impresario and hotel owner Donie Cassidy fighting for his political life. With his business interests and the chairmanship of a Dáil committee to look after, Cassidy's constituency work has suffered. The loss of his political heartland as a result of boundary changes and O'Rourke's determined challenge will probably finish him off.

Penrose has been Labour's biggest vote-getter nationally, and he is expected to perform well again. His base in Ballinacargy, Co Westmeath, lies on the border with Co Longford, so he may be less affected than others by the boundary changes.

James Bannon, a farmer and auctioneer from Legan in Co Longford, is seen as the best bet for Fine Gael's certain seat. Bannon has made little impact on national politics as a member of the Seanad, but his work rate locally impresses.

Nicky McFadden, whose father Brendan stood for the party in previous elections, was the first to get her posters up in many places. A councillor from Athlone, she was tipped as a possible winner in one internal poll carried out by another party.

Retiring Westmeath TD Paul McGrath has thrown his support behind Fine Gael's third candidate, Peter Burke, who has taken leave of absence from his job as an accountant for the campaign. Burke, from Mullingar, is reckoned to have an outside chance if he can mop up the McGrath votes, get ahead of Cassidy in early counts and rely on a fair wind nationally for Fine Gael.

Betty Doran is standing for the Greens, having previously stood for Labour and as an Independent. Having lost her council seat in the last local elections - though she has a seat on the town council - Doran must be ranked as an outsider. Sinn Féin's Paul Hogan may pick up some votes around his base in Athlone but won't be there in the shake-out for the final seats.

OUTOING TDS

Donie Cassidy (FF)

Peter Kelly (FF)

Willie Penrose (FG)

Mae Sexton (PD)

CANDIDATES

FIANNA FÁIL: Donie Cassidy; Sen Mary O'Rourke; Peter Kelly

FINE GAEL: Peter Burke; Sen James Bannon; Nicky McFadden

LABOUR: Willie Penrose

PDs: Mae Sexton

GREEN PARTY: Betty Doran

SINN FÉIN: Paul Hogan

LOCAL ISSUES

Mullingar hospital has been the biggest local issue for years and the blame for delays in its rebuilding will most likely be directed at Donie Cassidy. Road infrastructure isn't the major issue it is in other parts of the State. An exception is the north-south N52, which needs upgrading. There is also an active campaign seeking the reopening of the railway line between Athlone and Mullingar.

Verdict:FF - 2, FG - 1, Lab - 1