Montenegro looks set to break union with Serbia

MONTENEGRO: Unofficial projections last night suggested Montenegro had voted in favour of independence in yesterday's referendum on ending its state union with Serbia.

The Centre for Free Elections and Democracy and the Centre for Monitoring told a news conference the "Yes" vote was an estimated 56.3 percent - surpassing the 55 percent threshold required for the outcome to be validated.

Celebratory gunfire and fireworks rattled over the capital Podgorica moments after the unofficial result was broadcast.

Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic had earlier claimed Montenegro was heading for independence while opponents said they had defeated the independence drive.

Montenegro is the last former Yugoslav republic to claim sovereignty.

Independence supporters in the Adriatic region were starting to celebrate after more than 85 per cent of voters among the 650,000-strong population cast their ballots, in a referendum that international observers said passed off with few problems.

Official results are due today, but analysts said the high turnout favoured the independence camp in their bid to secure the 55 percent of votes necessary for victory, under rules drafted by the European Union.

"This is a big day for Montenegro," Mr Djukanovic (44) said after voting.

"The fact that the referendum day is passing peacefully and that the process is in accordance with the highest democratic, European standards already represents a big victory of democratic and European Montenegro," he added.

"That makes me very satisfied, very happy and I am convinced that tonight a democratic Montenegro will celebrate."

Mr Djukanovic insists that his republic will make swifter progress towards the EU and Nato once it is free of Serbia, which has seen talks with Brussels on closer ties frozen because of its failure to catch war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic.

But opponents of independence, including most of the large Serb minority in Montenegro, deride claims that such a small state would be better off without its larger neighbour. They also question the need to split families and friends with another Balkan border.

"I believe in our victory," declared anti-independence leader Predrag Bulatovic.

"I believe that it will be the citizens' will to preserve the union and that the referendum will fail, so Montenegro will not gain independence."

But the record turnout boosted the hopes of the pro-independence camp. "Montenegro's independence seems assured," said political analyst Braca Grubacic.

"The pro-Serb camp had claimed all along that they have 200,000 definite votes, which isn't enough in case of the extremely large turnout such as this one."

Recalling the wars that accompanied the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, many feared that tension would erupt into violence on polling day. "There were a few isolated incidents," said Marko Blagojevic of the independent Centre for Monitoring.

However, he cited nothing worse than a punch up at one polling station and an angry voter smashing a ballot box at another.

"Montenegro is cut in half," said a conciliatory Mr Bulatovic of the divisions exacerbated by the referendum. "After the vote, we must reconcile and think about Montenegro's European future," he said.

Formerly an independent monarchy, after the first World War Montenegro was folded into the Belgrade-dominated Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, which communist leader Tito renamed Yugoslavia after 1945.