Anti-government demonstrations are now becoming a daily event in Yugoslavia. They are usually spontaneous and disparate affairs, usually linked to local grievances such as salaries, pensions and housing.
As such, they still do not represent a direct threat to President Slobodan Milosevic. But the reality is that the Yugoslav dictator is now seriously cornered.
It is now clear that immediately after losing Kosovo, Mr Milosevic thought he could repeat the experience of President Saddam Hussein. Yugoslavia is not Iraq: its people are highly educated Europeans, and they enjoyed the benefit of free travel even under communism. Despite all the officially sponsored propaganda, the citizens of Yugoslavia now know that their country has been defeated; the Western media have always been accessible in the country. Furthermore, Mr Milosevic never exercised a classic dictatorship; an opposition always existed. It is now getting stronger.
More importantly, while neither the inducements nor the threats deployed against Iraq throughout this decade were potent enough to remove Mr Saddam Hussein, the carrots and the sticks now operating in the Balkans are substantial. The Security Council resolution authorising the Kosovo force allows western governments to use force at any time if Mr Milosevic goes back over his promises.
Theoretically at least, NATO will not need to repeat the anguished debates with Russia or China which often paralysed action in the Gulf. There are no complicated monitoring procedures and deadlines to be observed either: NATO has an open-ended mandate to do more or less as it pleases, for as long as it wishes. At the same time, the West is now offering substantial economic assistance to the other Balkan countries; the people of Yugoslavia will not benefit from it as long as they have Mr Milosevic.
Mr Saddam Hussein can play on his country's independence; the Yugoslavs know only too well that, ultimately, their status as a pariah state in a continent which is increasingly integrated is not a long-term proposition. And, finally, while in the case of Iraq one of the main reasons for Western inaction was the fear that the country may disintegrate, thereby destabilising the entire Middle East, no such fears are present in the Balkans.
To be sure, Mr Milosevic is far from finished. He still controls the armed forces and security services. Together with his wife and extended family, he also dominates almost any political and economic activity. Opposition to his regime is constantly harassed and kept divided. And, when everything fails, some opposition leaders are assassinated, in "mysterious" circumstances.
Mr Milosevic faced a sustained challenge to his regime three years ago, when the opposition actually won the local elections in the country and managed to mobilise millions of people in vast demonstrations. The Yugoslav ruler managed to squash this movement at the time with comparative ease. Can he do it again today? The answer is almost certainly negative.
Yugoslavia's main cities have remained calm this time; most of the demonstrations are held in smaller towns. But, paradoxically, this fact may represent a more ominous development for his regime. Yugoslavia's main urban areas have never voted for Mr Milosevic's communists in large numbers. His core support comes from the countryside and workers in the vast industrial estates.
The country's industry has been largely dismantled by NATO's bombing, disgorging millions of unemployed whom Mr Milosevic can no longer buy with pay rises financed by printing more money. The demonstrations against the regime certainly lack focus and leadership. Nevertheless, they now include very disparate groups, such as pensioners reduced to penury, local priests representing a church which has already officially called for Mr Milosevic's resignation and soldiers who returned from Kosovo, only to find that they can expect no work and no pay.
More importantly, from now on the situation can only get worse for the Yugoslav leader. Electricity supplies in the country are erratic.
Mr Milosevic is now truly cornered. He has asked the people of Yugoslavia to forgive him for losing Kosovo; he will shortly have to ask them to starve and shiver for the dubious benefit of keeping one corrupt family in power.
Of course, Mr Milosevic can always use the armed forces to disperse demonstrations. But, as the experience of every communist country in Europe this decade shows, armies are notoriously bad at shooting at their own people. All the indications are that Mr Milosevic is aware of this limitation: throughout this week his military was kept away from direct confrontation with demonstrations. But this strategy ultimately depends on the assumption that the relatively small protests in the provinces will not spread to the main towns. And the chances now are that they will.
When this happens, Mr Milosevic will be faced with the same situation that Nicolae Ceausescu, the communist dictator in neighbouring Romania, faced exactly 10 years ago. Like Mr Milosevic, Ceausescu ruled supreme, with the assistance of his wife. And like the Yugoslav leader, Ceausescu thought that he could remain in power through crude nationalism and fear.
Exactly like in Yugoslavia, Romania did not have an organised opposition, and the crowds which came on to the streets had no leadership. But within days after the demonstrations started, Ceausescu and his wife were dead, toppled by a popular uprising and a military coup rolled into one. This now seems the most likely scenario for Mr Milosevic and his family as well.
Jonathan Eyal is director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Reuters adds: Serbian opposition parties plan daily protests against President Milosevic over the next few weeks, culminating in a huge demonstration in Belgrade. "Our goal is daily protests throughout the country," said Democratic Party leader Mr Zoran Djindjic.
"These are going to be our last days of peaceful battle against this government," he added.
Ireland yesterday announced a new humanitarian aid package of £1.1 for Kosovo.