The President, Mrs McAleese, will nominate herself for a second seven-year term in Áras an Uachtaráin early next week, probably on Tuesday, write Renagh Holohan and Mark Brennock.
It seemed increasingly likely yesterday that Mrs McAleese would be returned unopposed. While both Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon and the Labour Party have yet to declare their intentions, indications from both camps suggest a contest is unlikely.
With candidates needing the support of 20 Oireachtas members or four local authorities to stand, Ms Scallon confirmed yesterday that she had not approached any local authorities at this stage.
Meanwhile, there are increasing signs that Labour will not contest the election. TDs and senators see the prospect of challenging Mrs McAleese as daunting. Party sources this week pointed to the forthcoming double by-election, saying this offered a better chance of inflicting a defeat on the Government, and that resources should be conserved for those contests.
Mrs McAleese already has a team in place to run her election campaign and raise money to fund it. The group will include a number of businessmen, among them Mr Pat Farrell, a former general secretary of Fianna Fáil, and Mr Laurence Crowley, as well as members and associates of the political parties supporting her.
If she is the only candidate, Mrs McAleese will be declared elected when she hands in her nomination papers on October 1st. She would become the first president returned without a contest for 21 years, since Dr Patrick Hillery was re-elected for a second seven-year term in 1983.
The current presidential term expires on November 10th, and the inauguration of the new president will be held the next day, November 11th. In the event of a contest the election will take place on October 22nd.
There are no precedents for a sitting president running a campaign, but Mrs McAleese has already planned her strategy. By delaying announcing her intentions for so long she has been able to conduct her usual functions without any charge of electioneering or of using her staff to promote her candidacy.
Although it might not after all be necessary, the President is preparing to acquire a campaign office and staff away from Áras an Uachtaráin. Should there be a contest she will divide her time into official presidential duties and campaign activities and will be careful to keep the two distinctly separate. Like all politicians she will be required to operate within the terms of the Electoral Bill which limits individual donations and to submit details of expenditure.
Mrs McAleese already has the support of the Coalition partners, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats. Fine Gael has said it will not oppose her if she nominates herself as opposed to being a party candidate. These parties, and others who may yet back her, will be invited to put representatives on the re-election team. "The campaign will be independent and the team will be as independent as can be achieved," an aide said.
While Ms Scallon complained that some local authorities would not now have scheduled meetings until after the close of nominations on October 1st, it emerged yesterday that all five councils which nominated her in 1997 have meetings scheduled before nominations close.
Ms Scallon said that the local authorities which have already met this month would have to hold special meetings if they wanted to discuss whether to nominate anyone. None has been asked to consider nominating her, however, indicating that she will not run.
Labour's parliamentary party will discuss the issue at a two-day meeting in Co Wexford next Tuesday and Wednesday, before the national executive makes a final decision on Thursday.
The only other possible contender, the former UN assistant secretary general, Mr Denis Halliday, confirmed this week that he would not be a candidate.