FORMER MINISTER for foreign affairs Micheál Martin has emerged as the strong front-runner to win the Fianna Fáil leadership vote on Wednesday.
Nineteen TDs have already stated in public that they will support Mr Martin ahead of the three other candidates who have declared so far: Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív and Minister for Tourism Mary Hanafin.
The number of TDs who have come out publicly to support Mr Martin is higher than the combined number of TDs who have declared for his rivals. A source close to Mr Martin’s campaign claimed last night that more than half of the 71 Fianna Fáil TDs who are eligible to vote have already pledged support for him.
Privately, his rivals have conceded that Mr Martin has taken a strong early lead in the battle to succeed Brian Cowen, but say that there is a large number of TDs who are undecided. However, several TDs, not all of whom are supporting Mr Martin, said last night they expected Mr Martin to win by a substantial margin on Wednesday.
The vote will be by proportional representation, which means the quota will be half the total number of votes, plus one.
Mr Martin was always expected to win strong support in his Cork base and throughout Munster. However despite the presence of two Dublin-based candidates – Ms Hanafin and Mr Lenihan – he has gained the backing of several TDs in the capital including Seán Haughey, Seán Ardagh and Chris Andrews. Former minister Willie O’Dea has also declared for him, and Minister of State Dara Calleary is also expected to support him.
Ms Hanafin specifically requested her supporters not to declare themselves publicly yesterday. Her only known supporters are Cabinet Minister Pat Carey and Máire Hoctor.
Two Ministers of State, Seán Connick and Martin Mansergh, have said they will vote for Mr Lenihan, as has Mary O’Rourke. Conor Lenihan is expected to support his brother.
Éamon Ó Cuív has pledges of support from Michael Kitt and Frank Fahey, both from Galway, and Sligo TD Eamon Scanlon. Several TDs said yesterday they expected Mr Ó Cuív to perform strongly.
One of the candidates yesterday pointed out that since the contest would be decided by proportional representation, much would depend on which way a large block of undecided TDs – numbering 15 to 20 – would vote. Many of these TDs backed Mr Cowen in the confidence motion last week and have not yet indicated their intentions.
Mr Ó Cuív said he was confident he would win some of that support from the so-called middle ground.