FRANCE: Lara Marlowe found to her surprise that most of the 25 Parisians she talked to yesterday voted Yes
Was it conceivable that more than a dozen consecutive opinion polls predicting a No verdict in the French referendum on the European constitutional treaty got it wrong? Supporters of the treaty believed many voters lied to pollsters to frighten the unpopular government.
In two Paris neighbourhoods, one socialist, one centre-right, the high turnout yesterday was thought to favour the Yes side. Voters told me the text was off-putting, "not fun to read". And they were fed up with the government. But to my surprise, a majority of the 25 Parisians I interviewed at random voted for the treaty.
Stéphane Andrieux (37), a decorator, was walking up the rue des Abbesses in Montmartre, carrying a gift for his wife for Mother's Day. "I voted Yes, for them," he said, gesturing at the two towheaded children at his side. "There've been more political discussions over this referendum than over the presidential election. I voted Yes more by instinct. But there's a rotten political atmosphere in France now; it's not a good time to hold an election."
Baptiste Olivier (29), a waiter, heard me talking to a pro-treaty estate agent in the queue to buy roast chicken. "Can I answer?" he interrupted. "I'm going to vote No. Who do they think they are, giving us a thick book we can't understand? We elect deputies for that."
For Olivier, "Voting No doesn't mean you're against Europe. Europe will happen anyway. They tried to scare us into voting Yes. A vote based on fear is never good; it's better to slow down a little." Florence Cavallero (47), the pro-treaty owner of an Italian restaurant, said No voters were "like the people who were against railroads".
Eventually, she continued, "they'll see it's inevitable. But it takes a lot of discussion. In France the talking is endless."
Outside the florist's shop I met Nathalie (40), an executive for a trans-European services group. Like several other interviewees, she did not wish to give her family name. "I'm voting No because I found all the arguments I heard about strengthening France deeply anti-European," she said, referring to President Jacques Chirac's main argument. "I don't care if France is weak; I want Europe to be strong. Hearing them say, 'Vote Yes so France will be strong' drives me crazy." The No vote seemed to symbolise a yearning for a political and economic Maginot Line, the useless defences that France built between the two World Wars.
"What bothers me in the No vote is the closing inward," said Bénédicte Mei (52), the director of a medical centre, as she waited to buy lettuce. A socialist voter, Mei said the campaign was "a catastrophe" for her party. "But the real culprit is the right-wing government, which took no account of the results of the last three elections."
Mei was unemployed for several years, and one of her two grown daughters is jobless. Despite her Yes vote, Mei understood No voters.
"People feel they've lost control over what is happening, that things move far too quickly. I know life is hard, but we have more of a chance of changing things from within the system," she said.
Mei was going to the home of a lawyer friend to watch the results on television last night. "He invited only Yes voters; otherwise we'd yell at each other all evening. Things are very tense. I have a sister and brother-in-law who won't talk to me because of the referendum." In the pastry shop I met Geneviève (54), a teacher, and Michel (58), an engineer. The wife voted No; the husband Yes. "I voted No for the wrong reasons," she said sheepishly, "to get revenge on the government. I'm a teacher, and I didn't like the Fillon Law [ reforming the baccalauréat]. If I'd voted Yes, it would have been for Simone Veil [ the holocaust survivor and first woman president of the European Parliament], because I like what she says. I hesitated a lot, but at the last minute, my anger took over. I want to slap the government."
Her husband Michel listened quietly. "I work for EADS [ the aeronautics consortium that runs Airbus]," he said. "I can't see myself working in a European group and voting No."
Eighteen metro stations to the south, at the École Corbon in the 15th district, Sarah Dessaint (20) voted Yes. "We're in Europe. We can't back out now. It wouldn't be right," she said. Most of her fellow nursing students voted Yes. Those who voted No did so because they fear Turkish accession.
But the only No argument that worried Dessaint was "social dumping" - that citizens of poorer EU countries could worsen French unemployment by working for low wages.
The 15th district is middle class and centre-right, with a few anti-European "sovereignists" and National Front supporters in the wings. Discarded No ballots were piled inside the polling booths. In more than an hour in front of the École Corbon, I found only one No voter, Jean Arrighi (79), a retired administrator for the Paris public housing system who supports Jean-Marie Le Pen. "The government isn't credible," he said. "Chirac says, 'After the referendum I'll make reforms'. So why didn't he make them before? They say, 'If you don't vote the way we want, we'll make you vote again'. Isn't that the limit!" Hatem Smaoui (45), a biologist who has a vitamin company, said President Chirac "made a mistake in thinking the French were relatively intelligent. Unfortunately, the demons came out". If the No won, Smaoui continued, "it will be as if I invited 10 people to a restaurant, and on the pavement outside, I said, 'No, I don't want to go in now'. France did everything to get this treaty!"
Bruno Rivet (34), a banker, thought Chirac was stupid to call a referendum, "because people never answer the question you ask them. They want to say they're fed up". In a way, Chirac was as disingenuous as voters, Rivet added.
"He claimed the referendum was about Europe, but after losing three elections last year, he wanted to make a big show, and say they voted for him." Rivet was bracing himself for a No verdict last night. "They'll make fun of the French even more abroad," he sighed. "We're a founding member of Europe, and the one that has the most trouble ratifying the treaty; it's grotesque." Thierry (40), a bus driver, stood chatting outside the school with his wife, their two sons, and a neighbour and her son. Most of his colleagues at the public transport service RATP belong to the communist CGT union, and they voted No.
"They're afraid public services will be privatised. Our pensions are being reformed, and they think we'll lose our right to retire at age 50, after 25 years' service. When we argued, I told them we have to try to build on the social elements of the treaty.
"The British say it's too social, so it must be good. The British and the east Europeans want no limit on working hours. If we're in [ the Union], at least we can set a maximum." Though he disagrees with his fellow bus drivers, Thierry shares their anxieties.
"During the 30 glorieuses [ years after the second World War] there was full employment," he says. "Now we're afraid of the future."