Today's polls were conducted on Wednesday 7th and Thursday 8th July, a full week after The Way Forward document was presented to the parties in Northern Ireland by the two governments and with the Drumcree protest still simmering.
At the time of fieldwork, the Ulster Unionist Party had yet to respond formally to the governments' proposals. The main obstacle from the UUP's perspective appeared to be lack of clarification on the nature of the automatic failsafe mechanism, whereby the institutions already established would be suspended in the event of any of the parties defaulting on the deal.
Meanwhile, no definitive statement had been made by the IRA as to whether or not it supported the governments' initiatives, with mixed media reports as to whether the IRA was willing to decommission even part of its arsenal by the May 2000 deadline.
The surveys have investigated the opinions of the electorate both North and South towards the various facets of The Way Forward proposals, with some clear messages emerging for David Trimble, the British and Irish governments, and the IRA.
The survey interview began with an explanatory passage which summarised the specific details of The Way Forward document. The respondents were then asked a series of questions on the proposals, with identical questions posed in Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Northern Ireland Overall
A clear majority in Northern Ireland - almost three-quarters of the electorate when the undecideds are excluded - believe that the all-party executive should be formed, as proposed, on July 18th.
This majority rises to nine in 10 of the combined nationalist electorate, with total unionist opinion split almost 50/50. Of the UUP supporters who expressed an opinion however, there is a majority of more than two-to-one in favour of accepting the governments' proposals, a message which should encourage those within the party executive who may be veering towards a positive response to the Blair/Ahern initiative.
Despite the broadly positive response to their proposals, however, the governments should recognise that a majority of unionists believes the existing guarantees of failsafe legislation are not sufficient, and that the executive should carry on without Sinn Fein if it does not abide by the rules of the agreement. The onus is clearly on the governments to provide more concrete assurances on this critical issue.
Decommissioning
The last MRBI poll, conducted in Northern Ireland before the Assembly elections in June 1998, identified two issues which were deemed to be more important to the electorate than all others, i.e. peace and decommissioning, with the latter more heavily associated with unionist voters. At that time a strong majority of unionists felt that decommissioning should begin "immediately", a view which was also held by just a quarter of SDLP voters and one-in-five Sinn Fein voters.
If anything, the desire for a significant movement on paramilitary decommissioning has grown over the intervening 12 months, and across both communities (see table on left), with over 80 per cent of those in Northern Ireland who expressed an opinion suggesting that decommissioning should go ahead within the context of The Way Forward initiative.
The broad republican movement, already boosted by growing electoral support for Sinn Fein North and South of the Border, should take note that a large majority of Sinn Fein's voters (72 per cent when the undecideds are excluded) are now advocating decommissioning, with a similar proportion of them suggesting that the Provisional IRA should make a statement indicating its support for the proposals put forward by the two governments.
Given the agonisingly slow pace of movement on the issue thus far, it is not surprising that only a quarter of the electorate appear confident that decommissioning will be completed by the May 2000 deadline, and that just over a third believe that Gen de Chastelain's international commission can eventually bring about total decommissioning of all paramilitary weapons.
Broad Outlook
Levels of confidence in the full implementation of the Good Friday/ Belfast Agreement vary radically between the unionist and nationalist communities, with the former quite pessimistic and the latter rather optimistic in their outlook.
In line with the overwhelmingly positive response to their proposed Way Forward, the British and Irish governments can draw comfort from the fact that a majority is satisfied with the manner in which they have been handling the negotiations on the Good Friday agreement, with the Irish Government actually faring better than the British in the minds of unionist voters.
Republic Of Ireland
Typically, any of the peace process initiatives have thus far been received more enthusiastically in the South than they have in the North, with the general mood in the Republic more closely in line with the nationalist consensus in Northern Ireland.
This all-Ireland poll has been no exception, with 84 per cent of the electorate in the South in favour of the all-party executive being formed on July 18th, a figure which converts to 97 per cent support when the undecided are excluded.
More than 80 per cent of the electorate in the Republic feels that decommissioning should go ahead, and that the IRA should make a statement in support of the governments' proposals.
The same levels of pessimism regarding the prospects for the completion of decommissioning by May 2000 are evident in the South compared with the North, with just over a third confident that the de Chastelain commission can eventually bring about total disarmament.
In the longer term, opinion is evenly split as to the likelihood of the Good Friday agreement being fully implemented by mid-2000, with Fianna Fail supporters more optimistic than the supporters of any other party.
In summary, it is clear that the basic proposals set down by the governments in Belfast last week have caught the imagination of the electorate both North and South of the Border, with the great majority of people supporting in principle the establishment of an all-party executive on July 18th.
A number of confidence-building measures would obviously facilitate acceptance of the agreement amongst a majority of unionists, namely more specific guarantees from the governments in relation to the proposed failsafe legislation, and a statement from the IRA in support of the deal, with the latter being quite acceptable to the great majority of Sinn Fein supporters.