Majority in Arab states view Israel, US as threats to stability, says poll

MIDDLE EAST:A survey conducted in six pro-western Arab states reveals that nearly 80 per cent of their citizens consider Israel and the US the greatest threats to the stability of the region rather than Iran. These results could make it more difficult for the Bush administration to convince Arab leaders to join the US and Israel in an alliance against Iran.

The poll also shows the Arab public in these countries does not view ongoing regional conflicts through the prism of the Shia-Sunni divide, although there has been some estrangement since the execution of Iraq's former Sunni president, Saddam Hussein, by the country's Shia government.

These findings contradict the view held by the US and some Sunni Arab rulers, particularly those in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates, that the ambitions of Shia Iran constitute the main threat to the region and of politicians and analysts, who argue that the ongoing Sunni-Shia civil conflict in Iraq is promoting sectarian divisions in other Arab countries.

The survey was conducted in November and early December 2006 by Zogbi International, a mainstream US polling organisation, using questions devised by Shibley Telhami, a senior fellow at the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

The full findings of the poll are to be presented by Dr Telhami to a Brookings-sponsored conference of Muslim leaders scheduled to convene in Doha next week. This is the fifth annual survey his team has formulated and carried out. It involved interviews with 3,850 respondents in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Fewer than 25 per cent of respondents believe Iran should be compelled to end its nuclear programme and an average of 61 per cent, with majorities in all six countries, said Iran has the right to carry on with the programme even if it leads to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

Seventy-five per cent say their attitude towards the US is unfavourable, with 57 per cent describing their view as "very unfavourable". In Jordan, the rating is 90 per cent, in Morocco 87 per cent and Saudi Arabia 82 per cent. These countries are ruled by monarchs closely allied to the US.

Seventy-six per cent of Jordanians, 65 per cent of Moroccans, 62 per cent of Lebanese and 54 per cent of Saudis consider the Arab-Israeli conflict "extremely important" in forming their attitudes towards the US. A majority said the US could reduce negative Arab views by negotiating an Arab-Israeli territorial settlement.

Forty per cent of respondents in all six countries say US president George Bush is the foreign leader they most dislike. This figure compares with 11 per cent for former Israeli premier Ariel Sharon and seven per cent for his successor, Ehud Olmert. The most admired leader is Hizbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, with 14 per cent. He overtook former front runner, French president Jacques Chirac, who has eight per cent.

Sixty-one per cent in all six countries say they would agree to peace with Israel if it withdrew from Arab territories conquered in 1967, but a majority of these respondents say they did "not believe the Israelis will give up the territories peacefully". Twenty-nine per cent argue the Arabs should continue the struggle with Israel, even if it evacuates these lands.

Earlier polls traced the fall in US standing with Arabs since September 11th, 2001. The decline has accelerated since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and gained further momentum during Israel's onslaught on Lebanon last summer.