ANALYSIS OF voting behaviour in the Lisbon Treaty referendum last June concludes that concerns about the loss of a permanent Irish commissioner were a “substantial consideration” in leading people to vote No.
The study, conducted by a team from the UCD Geary Institute, led by Prof Richard Sinnott, conducted analysis on why people voted Yes or No in the referendum last year.
In addition to highlighting public concern about Ireland losing its right to a commissioner, the analysis also showed that the overall positive attitude that Irish people have towards the European Union, as regularly evidenced by Eurobarometer surveys, contributed substantially to support for the treaty in the referendum.
As against this, however, it found that a low level of knowledge about Europe and about the treaty had a double effect. In the first instance, lack of knowledge made people more likely to abstain. Second, for those who did vote, it increased the likelihood of a No.
Further statistical analysis assessed people’s perception of what was actually in the treaty and the extent to which people perceived things to be in the treaty that are not there, such as conscription to a European army, the loss of control over the corporate tax rate, and loss of control over issues like abortion.
“The failure to convince or reassure people that the issues of corporate taxation, of abortion and of conscription were not in the Lisbon Treaty played a substantial role in the defeat of the ratification proposal,” it noted.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin said that the agreement secured by Ireland from other EU member states responded directly to the public concerns highlighted by Prof Sinnott and his colleagues.
“We now have a clear choice to make regarding Irish membership of the European Commission. If the Lisbon Treaty enters into force, the commission to be appointed later this year and all future Commissions will have an Irish member,” he said.
On that key question of a commissioner, the report noted that 80 per cent of Irish people believe it was an important issue and that it was an important issue in making up their minds for 65 per cent of voters.
The team also found that domestic political factors and satisfaction with the government was not the crucial factor it is commonly held to be.