THE biggest world story of 1997 is likely to be the long awaited take-over of Hong Kong from the British by communist China at midnight on June 30th. Will it be a smooth hand-over?
It will probably be rough and noisy: I refer to the sea (it will be the height of the monsoon season) and the massive fireworks displays which the Chinese will organise. Otherwise it will be all pomp and ceremony.
The Chinese will want to reassure the world little will change, to prevent flight from the freewheeling capitalist enclave which has sparked the Chinese economic engine. Beijing will also want Taiwan to see reunification with the motherland can be painless.
However, the Chinese will not be able to resist a triumphal entry into Hong Kong. The British will depart in equally grand style. The Prince of Wales will turn up for the hand-over ceremony and as midnight strikes will sail out of Hong Kong on the royal yacht Britannia with Governor Chris Patten on board.
Margaret Thatcher, who gave away Hong Kong, will stay behind in her Mandarin Hotel suite to symbolise the enduring British link. She will, however, no longer be relevant in the new, post-colonial era. Great scenes of rejoicing will greet the lowering of the Union Jack and the raising of the red flag, if only because Hong Kong people are pragmatists and recognise the validity of the principle "The king is dead, long live the king!"
Most Hong Kong Chinese in fact genuinely support the new arrangements.
Governor Patten's legislative council will be dissolved before the royal yacht disappears over the horizon and will be replaced by a Beijing-approved assembly. All measures which Governor Patten is currently trying to push through the council - such as liberalising treason laws - will also be revoked as a cheeky attempt to dictate the rules to the new rulers.
The real story of Hong Kong 1997 will be what happens next. How will the new chief executive, Tong Chee-wha, handle the first pro-democracy demonstration? How will Beijing react to the first attack on its policies in the Hong Kong media? It is safe to predict some tense moments in the weeks and months after the change of sovereignty, if only because, with the best will in the world, Beijing will find it difficult to stifle its authoritarian instincts when challenged in print or on the streets.