THE LIBERAL Democrats were resigned on voting day to an electoral drubbing that will dramatically roll back the party’s local government network, inflame coalition tensions and dash hopes of voting reform for a generation.
Nick Clegg, deputy prime minister, is preparing to steady the nerves of a party shaken by apparent rejection at the ballot box in what could be one of the toughest weeks yet for the coalition.
Worst-case scenarios suggest the Lib Dems’ long and steady rise in local government will go into full-scale retreat.
Richard Kemp, leader of the Lib Dem local government association, warned that a “bad day” could see some 600 losses when all the results are in, ousting more than a third of councillors seeking re-election this year.
A more successful outcome will be marked by relatively small losses – less than 300 in total – in a large number of councils, with promising signs of gains against the Tories and resilience against Labour in key strongholds.
But any pleasure over a better-than-expected showing is likely to be quickly overshadowed by the alternative vote referendum results announced late today – some ministers feel defeat is almost certain.
The fallout from the results is likely further to complicate Mr Clegg’s job as leader, as activists increasingly voice dissent and pretenders to succeed him jockey for position.
While admitting the results are far from ideal, Mr Clegg’s team point to a number of mitigating factors: tiny majorities in authorities such as Bristol and Hull; Labour recovering from an extremely low base; and a backlash over student fees that could lose force in time.
Mr Clegg’s team is planning to hold tight and weather the storm, arguing that his strategy was to bolster the party’s chances at the general election in 2015, not prevail in the 2011 local elections.
But there is little doubt that the pressure on Mr Clegg and bad blood generated during a highly charged campaign will have a far-reaching impact on the government. On Friday strategists will be looking for signs of the Lib Dem vote holding up in some areas, bucking the sharp decline in the party’s national poll ratings. Advances against the Tories, however fragile, will give hope that the coalition can bring new voters to the party.
Beyond losing large numbers of councillors, there are two main concerns for party insiders. The first is the prospect of the Tories consistently taking Lib Dem ground and seizing any electoral spoils from the coalition. About three quarters of seats contested this year are in authorities where the Tories are the main rival.
The second big danger is that the party will be completely forced out of some areas — in university towns or the cities of the north — decimating an activist base that will be a pre-requisite to mounting a fightback in the general election.
“What keeps me up at night is the thought of losing our base, being wiped out in areas. It’s bloody hard to come back from,” said one senior Lib Dem.
– (Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011)