CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:DUBLIN SOUTH West is proof of the law of gravity that tells us what goes up must come down – invariably sooner than expected.
For two elections running now, the poll-topper in this constituency has come a cropper in the election that followed. Brian Hayes stormed home in 1997, only to lose his seat five years later; the victor on that occasion, Seán Crowe of Sinn Féin, unexpectedly lost his seat in the 2007 election.
Now the question is whether Conor Lenihan, who topped the poll last time, will fall victim to this particular voodoo. Most observers think he will.
In normal times, being a junior minister and the owner of one of the most recognisable surnames in Irish politics might count for something – but these are not normal times. The trappings of powers are a source of resentment in a constituency with high unemployment – and the Lenihan name is virtually a toxic asset.
The demands of high office have also curtailed Lenihan’s activity on the ground, in contrast to his running mate and fellow TD, Charlie O’Connor.
“Mr Tallaght” was all over the media during Fianna Fáil’s recent internal tribulations, but he is also known as a hard grafter in the constituency.
Perhaps the final nail in Lenihan’s coffin is Fine Gael’s late decision to add Cáit Keane to the ticket. Keane, a former PD senator, hails from Templeogue, at the middle-class end of the constituency, and will erode Lenihan’s support in this area.
This is a largely working-class constituency centred on Tallaght, but with middle-class fringes in Templeogue, Firhouse and Ballycullen.
Hayes is certain to come home comfortably and may top the poll, but Fine Gael’s tardiness in adding a second candidate to the ticket – Keane only came on board at the end of January after failing to secure a nomination in Dublin South – seems like a mistake now.
Despite being the only woman on the ballot paper, she is unlikely to feature in the final shake-up.
Just as Hayes came back after losing his seat, Crowe is on the rebound and Sinn Féin is seen as a safe bet for a gain here.
Labour is also assured of a seat for former leader Pat Rabbitte, but the real challenge will be to bring in his running mate, Eamonn Maloney.
Where Rabbitte is brash and loquacious, Maloney is quiet and introverted, according to political colleagues. From Oldbawn near Tallaght, he is the cathaoirleach of South Dublin County Council. Only careful vote-management in the party will see him home.
The Greens are running a new candidate, Francis Duffy, but he will not figure. Mick Murphy of the Socialist Party-United Left Alliance should poll respectably, but the main interest will be where his transfers go. Fathers’ rights campaigner Ray Kelly is running as an Independent.
In 1992, Dublin South West returned three left-wing TDs for the four seats, the first time this happened in an Irish election. Yet its voters are also highly volatile – for example, they voted heavily against the first Lisbon referendum and heavily for the second one.
All of which makes it difficult to predict the final outcome. After Hayes, Rabbitte and Crowe take their seats, the last place could be a toss-up between O’Connor and Maloney.
DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST 4 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:
Conor Lenihan (FF), Charlie O'Connor (FF), Brian Hayes (FG), Pat Rabbitte (Lab).
CANDIDATES:
Conor Lenihan (FF), Charlie O'Connor (FF), Brian Hayes (FG), Cait Keane (FG), Pat Rabbitte (Lab), Eamonn Maloney (Lab), Sean Crowe (SF), Francis Duffy (GP), Mick Murphy (SP/ULA), Ray Kelly (Ind), Donal O'Riordan (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:
Jobs, or the lack of them, is the main issue, as in so many other parts of the country. Health is not as big an issue as in previous elections, though there remain concerns about services at Tallaght Hospital when, or if, the proposed new national children's hospital goes ahead. Negative equity is also a big concern in many of the newer estates built around the foothills of the Dublin
mountains in recent years.
VERDICT:FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1
