THE big question in the Dublin North East constituency is: can Labour hold on to its two seats? In the 1992 election the huge national swing to the party swept in Sean Kenny and Tommy Broughan. Kenny, a former lord mayor of Dublin who has diligently worked the constituency for 15 years, received a massive 8,873 first preference votes. Broughan got in on the 12th count.
Political opponents say Broughan will not make it this time. They claim he is already in trouble. Naturally this view is not shared by the Labour Party. The party's director of elections, Frank Barry, points out that both men are councillors, good workers, and "visible". He stresses that they are "local" and not "blowins" like some of the other candidates, who he claims were never heard of until the election was called.
One of the major issues in the constituency is the proposal to build two travellers' halting sites in the Howth/Sutton area. "There is desperate flak about this," said one Fianna Fail senior worker. However, overall the issues are similar to those in many of the other Dublin areas, crime, drugs, unemployment, tax.
The left wing parties say they are "delighted" with Mary Harney's remarks about single mothers and hope she will continue to "put her foot in her mouth". They claim her views have caused considerable anger and annoyance. There are a lot of large housing estates in this constituency where many single women are rearing their children. The Progressive Democrats policy of encouraging them to live at home with a special State allowance has gone down like a "lead balloon", they maintain.
Fianna Fail believes it can hold on to its two seats. Long serving former minister, Dr Michael Woods, seems certain of regaining his seat, although he was elected only on the 10th count in 1992. Not a great performance for such an experienced politician.
Outgoing deputy Liam Fitzgerald and Martin Brady will be in contention for the second seat. Brady, a quiet, steady worker, has been canvassing the area for the past nine months and they say there isn't a door he hasn't knocked on. The big problem for the party is that the three candidates are from the same area and live within a mile of each other. It would have preferred a wider, more strategic spread.
The party is incensed about the amount of political vandalism in the constituency. A veteran party worker said: "We are having terrible trouble trying to keep posters up. They are being whipped down all over the place. There was always a bit of that in the past, but I have never in all my years seen anything as bad as this."
Fine Gael, which has always held a seat in the area (two up until 1989), lost out to the Labour hurricane in 1992. Michael Joe Cosgrave, a long serving deputy and councillor, lost his seat. He is back in the race this time, accompanied by another strong candidate in Joan Maher. Both of them have worked tirelessly over the years and have a good record of service. There is a strong likelihood that one of them will be elected, especially if Broughan falls.
The Progressive Democrats have an impressive candidate in Mairead Foley, a civil servant who gave up her job to contest the election. Her party says she is getting good support. However, Stephen O'Byrnes, at the time one of the party's senior strategists, ran here in the last election and got only 2,034 first preference votes and picked up very few transfers.
Foley has a higher profile and is well known for her appearances on RTE's Live at Three programme in her former capacity as Department of Social Welfare information officer. This is standing well to her in the campaign. But she has a major battle on her hands and it will take a significant swing to get her in.
Democratic Left is strong in this constituency. Even though its candidate in the last election, Pat McCartan, lost his seat, he polled a creditable 3,743 first preferences. The new standard bearer is the young, energetic Anthony Creevey who will be trying to build on that strong foundation.
However, there is tremendous competition for the left vote. If McCartan could not get reelected with his much praised Dail performances and local work he was also a member of Dublin City Council - it will be an uphill battle for Creevey.
The Greens, Sinn Fein and Independents, based on previous performances in this constituency, don't seem likely to figure in the final shakeout.