IN THE 1992 general election study Partnership, which he wrote with Renagh Holohan, Sean Donnelly described Limerick West as "probably the most predictable constituency in the country". But now all is changed, changed utterly: a terrible uncertainty is born.
Every schoolchild knows that the Fianna Fail kingpin in Limerick West is Gerry, or more recently Gerard, Collins who never quite made it to party leader or Taoiseach but filled nearly every other senior post.
They still talk about the incident-filled 1967 by-election when Collins won his late father's Dail seat. However, the next poll in Limerick West during the general election could also enter the annals because of the special circumstances in which it is being held.
Collins and his Fianna Fail running-mate, Michael J. Noonan, have been jointly elected to Leinster House with monotonous predictability in every general election since 1969. The pattern has been for Collins to score a huge first-preference vote and bring Noonan in with his transfers.
Within a week of each other, the two TDs announced they were not standing in the next general election, although Collins intends to remain a member of the European Parliament. Suddenly not one but two "permanent positions" have become vacant.
Can the kingpin also be a kingmaker? Collins, now aged 58, is backing his 55-year-old brother Michael, owner of a hotel in Limerick City and former county council chairman. It is taken as read that "Mikey Joe" will come through tonight's convention at Rathkeale.
The interesting question is who will be the other name on the ticket? Up to time of writing, eight candidates were chasing two nominations. Each week has brought a fresh name and a fever of political ambition seems to have gripped Limerick West.
Gerry Collins had been a faithful attender at cumann a.g.m.s over the past six months, so much so that everyone assumed "Gerry is leaving Europe". Michael, as a new member of the party's national executive, was also entitled to be present and this cannot have hurt his chances of selection at tonight's convention.
Insiders say there has been some resentment at the notion of a Collins "dynasty" passing the seat, first from father to son, and now from brother to brother. The fact that Michael does not live in Abbeyfeale but 34 miles away in Patrickswell and has his business outside the constituency in Limerick city has also been remarked upon. There hasn't been a convention like this in Limerick West for 30 years and the "ground hurling" should be hot and heavy.
Sen Rory Kiely was the unsuccessful "third man" in 1969 behind Collins and Noonan and he has resurfaced as a candidate for the nomination. His Seanad contributions would never dim the lustre of Joe Lee or David Norris but he is prominent in the GAA and generally well liked. There is a view he should be given his chance at last, although others feel strongly a new - or "newish" - face is needed.
That "newish" face may be John Clifford who is a neighbour of Michael J. Noonan's at Bruff, in the north end of the constituency, as well as being a member of the same party cumann.
Clifford, a nephew of Bishop Eamon Casey, teaches science and mathematics at Limerick CBS. He took over Noonan's county council seat after the latter became Minister for Defence in 1987.
The longstanding tensions between the Collins and Noonan camps were highlighted in slightly comic fashion in 1980 when the then-Taoiseach, Charles Haughey, formally opened an extension to a milking parlour at Noonan's farm and senior party people from the constituency, including Collins were not invited.
Yet the two depended on each another. They were at different ends of the constituency and could "hoover up" the vote between them. Noonan's stolid persona allowed Collins to shine but although Collins pulled a massive first-preference vote (14,776 in 1981) he always made sure there was a big transfer to Noonan.
In the last county council elections, Michael Brennan, of Adare, ran in the Bruff electoral area with Michael Collins and John Clifford and topped the poll with over 500 votes more than either of his colleagues. He is also seeking a DaiI nomination but because of their geographic proximity, the Michael Collins camp is unlikely to support him.
The Collins-Noonan ticket provided an urban-rural balance and there is an argument that the younger Collins should have a partner with a background as a farming activist. Bertie Wall from Feenagh, fills the bill in this respect.
Other contenders are: Liam Lenihan, a national school principal and selector for the all-Ireland hurling team; John Dowling, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce in Newcastlewest, who is seen as a long shot; and Kevin Sheahan, a colourful and outspoken publican from Askeaton who was recently elected chairman of Foynes Harbour Commissioners.
The smart money is on the Collins-Clifford combination, both quiet, reserved individuals.
Fine Gael tails are up in the constituency. Their sitting TD,
Michael Finucane, has been joined on the ticket by Sen Dan Neville. Party sources claim Fianna Fail is in "disarray" and this will give Fine Gael the second seat.
The figures from 1992 lend some credence to that view but there is another school of thought which claims Neville can only win a Dail seat at Finucane's expense.
Not surprisingly Neville says this is rubbish.
Labour's Sen Mary Kelly took 10.83 per cent of the first preferences in 1992 and might still win enough votes to influence the final outcome next time.
The PDs "borrowed" a Fine Gael seat in 1987 and their candidate last time, Sean Liston, got 2,343 first preferences. Michael J. Noonan lost the Fianna Fail whip on the divorce issue and that Traditionalist Christian vote may now be looking for a home outside Fianna Fail.
Sinn Fein is likely to improve on its first-preference total of 346 last time.
But all eyes are on tonight's convention in Rathkeale. Michael Collins must win 50 per cent of delegates' votes plus one to be elected on the first count. That's a difficult challenge with seven other candidates.
After the vote the party will have to reunite behind the successful pair. Limerick West is one of those constituencies where you can be sure that will happen.