King Fahd's resumption of rule may signal succession struggle

YESTERDAY'S unexpected resumption of rule by King Fahd only seven weeks after handing over to his half brother Crown Prince Abdullah would seem to presage a contest for the succession, if not a full scale power struggle within the royal family.

This is because the secretive Saudi royals have failed to convince their own people and outsiders that the ailing king who, according to US intelligence sources, suffered a serious stroke in November which deprived him of speech and mobility was well enough to resume his duties as monarch and prime minister.

Although scheduled to meet King Hussein of Jordan and the Egyptian President, Mr Hosni Mubarak, who made Ramadan pilgrimages to Mecca last week, King Fahd failed to appear on grounds of ill health. He did, however, participate in a closed cabinet meeting.

An informed source told The Irish Times that the king, who suffers from obesity, a heart condition and diabetes, "requires many more months of physiotherapy before he can function normally."

The authoritative Al-Quds daily, published in London reported that King Fahd has been restored as a figurehead so that power can be exercised by a triumvirate of his brothers (among seven sons of King Abdel Aziz born to Hassa al Sudairi). The three are Prince Sultan, the Defence Minister, who is second in line to succeed, Prince Salman, the popular and comparatively uncorrupt governor of Riyadh, and Prince Naif, Minister of the Interior.

The triumvirate's aim would be to ensure that the succession would skip the non Sudairi Crown Prince Abdullah who, the Sudairis fear, once in power would consolidate his position and secure the succession for one of his own sons.

Prince Abdullah, who heads the National Guard, the bedouin based "White Army" established to protect the monarchy against potential army coups, could back up his legitimate claim to the throne with armed strength if he chose to resist being passed over. However, the Sudairis could count on the army and the US because they have been instrumental in forging the close defence alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia.

Familial infighting would certainly be exploited by the rising Islamist opposition which seeks the overthrow of the corrupt and inefficient monarchy.

The Shia uprising in Bahrain, this week's attempted coup in neighbouring Qatar and the disharmony in the House of Saud have prompted Arab analysts to remark that the Gulf is being "mashrekised" or infected with the instability endemic in the countries of the "Mashrek", the eastern Arab world.

And since Saudi money financed conservative forces attempting to destabilise secular, nationalist Arab regimes, the Arabs of the Mashrek have little sympathy for their Gulf brothers in their time of trial.