EU: It is a measure of Pat Cox's success in Europe that he should be considered seriously for the job of Commission President, writes Denis Staunton
On the face of it, this week's visit to Dublin by the President of the European Parliament, Mr Pat Cox, is little more than a routine event in the European political calendar. Mr Cox will address the Seanad, call on the President, dine with the Taoiseach and have lunch with the Minister for Foreign Affairs.
He will voice his concern over some trends in the negotiations towards a constitutional treaty for the EU, and discuss Ireland's forthcoming EU presidency. But the most interesting question about Mr Cox will not be mentioned at all: the question of whether he will be Ireland's next EU Commissioner.
The Taoiseach must decide by next summer whether to give the Health and Consumer Affairs Commissioner, Mr David Byrne, another five-year term in Brussels. Government sources suggest that although no final decision is necessary for at least six months, the Taoiseach is unlikely to make an appointment that would require a by-election. This leaves Mr Cox as the only serious rival to Mr Byrne.
"I have seen the speculation. I've seen various names mentioned," Mr Cox said. "I frankly have no idea in terms of the decision-making process in Ireland whether those names in Irish terms are serious or entirely speculative and I have to respect the fact that the prerogative is exclusively that of the Taoiseach. And this is not going to be part of my visit to Dublin."
The Taoiseach has plenty of time to consider who the next Irish Commissioner should be but he has already started taking soundings among his fellow EU leaders about who should succeed Mr Romano Prodi as Commission President next year. Recent Commission presidents have been former prime ministers but some EU diplomats believe it is time to break with that tradition.
Senior British officials have suggested that Mr Cox would be the ideal figure to make the Commission more efficient and to give the EU a more attractive image among citizens. It is a measure of Mr Cox's success in his present role that he should be considered seriously for the EU's top job, although his chances of succeeding Mr Prodi remain slender.
Mr Cox declines to speculate on his prospects but he has no doubt that the job should not be reserved for former prime ministers.
"Probably in my time - and I've been here since 1989 - by the largest margin, the most dynamic leader of the Commission was Jacques Delors. And Jacques Delors was not a former prime minister," he said.
Amid all the speculation, Mr Cox remains ready to stand again in Munster at next June's European elections and, after his official engagements in Dublin this week, he will spend all day on Friday at events in Limerick. His election organisation remains intact and he says his present intention is to seek re-election.
"As of now, the answer to that question is yes. I haven't started to do it because it is some months away and also because I'm so focused on what I'm doing now. But the answer is yes."
If the Government decides to nominate Mr Cox as Commissioner, it will almost certainly be because Fianna Fáil is likely to gain a European Parliament seat in Munster if he does not stand. Mr Cox, who has become one of Europe's most celebrated political figures during the past two years, would probably secure a prominent portfolio in any new Commission.
During his dinner with the Taoiseach on Wednesday, Mr Cox will urge the Government to resist moves at the Inter-Governmental Conference to cobble together a deal on the future composition of the Commission that would give all member-states a Commissioner but would give the six biggest states two Commissioners.
"I think Ireland appreciates the so-called community method, the anchor which the Commission gives and understands that it is not just about having feet under the table but about the influence of the table itself. I have some concerns about the drift of the debate and I'd like to know does the Government have a position on going back to a pre-Nice arrangement in which the large states had two. This is not for big-small state reasons but because we have to value the role of the Commission as an anchor to the community method."
As President of the European Parliament, he supports the draft text agreed at the Convention on the Future of Europe but he acknowledges that the Convention's proposal to have voting and non-voting Commissioners is "inelegant". He recalls that the Nice Treaty agreed that every member-state should nominate a Commissioner until the EU has more than 27 members, after which new arrangements would be agreed.
"To be perfectly frank, the Nice formula, compared to some of the things I'm hearing, could be eventually more elegant," he said.
Mr Cox's second concern in the treaty negotiations is over an attempt by EU finance ministers, whose EU committee is called Ecofin, to deprive the European Parliament of any meaningful role in drawing up the EU budget.
"It's not simply about some kind of corporatist interest. In the end, budgets, parliamentary influences over budgets, and budgets in democracy are a classic, fundamental and necessary feature of democratising how you make decisions, and we are not prepared here, without a strong fight, to put up with the daylight robbery being suggested by the Ecofin," he said.
Mr Cox's term as President of the European Parliament has been dominated by preparations for the accession of 10 new member-states next May. He has spoken in almost every parliament in the new member-states, articulating a vision of European reunification that offers a welcome contrast to the technocratic negotiations for membership.
His next six months will focus on preparations for the European elections, which he hopes will be characterised by a new European consciousness.
"For the election next year, we are going to bring in key party people, key media and try to focus them on making the sixth direct elections the first genuinely European election."
A number of Irish MEPs will stand down next year and Mr Cox hopes the new intake will include more people who will engage with the wider Europe - politicians in his own image, in fact.
"It's not that they should abandon Irish representation but because, in the end, if you can develop the European connection and you have to pick up the phone for an Irish issue, you're listened to," he said.