KISANGANI, Zaire's third city, fell last Saturday after brief resistance from mercenaries, writes Col E.D. Doyle.
The rebel leader, Laurent Kabila, remained until yesterday in Goma, where some old problems of military and customs abuses are reported to be resurfacing. He is a former Marxist politician but he trusts his field commanders.
Presumably, Kisangani has been the main objective so far. A combination of Banyamulenge (Tutsis settled in Zaire) and Shaba Baluba rebels have captured many towns en route to Lubumbashi, including Manono and the railway junction towns of Kabalo and Kongolo.
Mr Kabila has said he will use the tactic of the Tutsi general, Kagame, of Rwanda - as he has so far. Kagame did not directly assault Kigali, Rwanda's capital. He first neutralised the airfield with artillery fire and then captured it. Leaving enough troops to maintain pressure, he feinted around the city to the west. Avoiding pitched battles, he gradually enveloped and captured it while confusing the government forces about his objectives.
In Zaire, Kabila is similarly confusing the government forces but he must have control and supply problems. He will hardly put many resources into capturing remote Gbadolit with its Mobutu palace and on the road to nowhere.
If Shaba's mines stop working or Mbuyi Mayi's diamonds stop coming, Kinshasa will run short of foreign currency. The diamond mines are not far from Kabila's troops at Kindu. Their output, unlike Ores, is easily transported and sold an attractive prospect for Kabila.
Kinshasa is a prestigious objective taking a capital is a blow to the enemy's "centre of gravity", as Clausewitz commented. But Kabila may decide to wait, as Kagame did with Kigali city.