EU: Migration from the accession countries to the existing member-states of the European Union under conditions of full freedom of movement would be about 1 per cent of the population of the new member-states over the next five years, or approximately 220,000 people per year.
This is the conclusion reached in a new joint study by the European Foundation for the Improvement in Living and Working Conditions, a Dublin-based EU agency, and the European Commission, released in Brussels yesterday.
The study shows that the typical migrant from the new member-states would be young, educated to third level and living as a single person with no dependents.
"This study confirms the view of the European Commission that fears of a huge wave of migration from the new member-states after May 1st, 2004, will be proven to be unfounded," said Ms Margot Wallström, acting Commissioner for Employment and Social Affairs.
According to the joint study there is a serious risk of a "youth and brain drain" from the accession countries, with about 2-3 per cent of the 15-24 age-group indicating a firm intention to move.
Accession countries are also in danger of losing highly qualified people. One-third of potential migrants with a firm intention to move are students, and a quarter have completed third-level education. Only 2 per cent of unemployed people indicated a firm intention to move.
The study says: "The receiving countries of the EU can expect a high-quality labour supply, which should improve its short-term economic and long-term socioeconomic base with a more active demographic structure. Extended pressure on existing social security systems in the old EU member-states should not occur in the short run."
