UN sources in south Lebanon yesterday reported that the pull-back by the Israeli-backed South Lebanon Army (SLA) is expected to take place in an area known as the Jezzine corridor, about 40 miles from the Irish Battalion's headquarters in the town of Tibnin.
UN sources said it was suspected the SLA, which holds fortresses on high points in a line across the south Lebanese border, would pull back from the northern section of the corridor into a more strongly fortified position to the south. The area it is pulling back to has a number of fortresses which are held by the Israeli defence forces.
While this action is taking place well outside the Irish Battalion's area of operations, it was being watched closely.
The SLA pull-out may signal an early beginning to a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. If this happens the Lebanese government intends to move its forces into the occupied zone, of about 120 sq km. In this event the Irish Battalion will hand over its current headquarters in Tibnin to the Lebanese army as its main base in the area.
The UN mandate in south Lebanon is to oversee the withdrawal of the Israeli forces and the establishing of a Lebanese mandate. If this mandate is met, it will lead to an end of the Army's 21-year presence in the area.
However, the feeling in the UN Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is that there will be a difficult transitional period as the security of the region is established. The total number of troops in UNIFIL is 600.
It is also expected that, in the interim, the Islamic guerillas operating in south Lebanon, the military wing of the Hizbullah party, will step up its attacks on SLA and Israeli positions. Hizbullah attacks have increased in recent weeks with 14 attacks in one day just before the Israeli elections. There were also further attacks and Israeli retaliation over the weekend leading to the deaths of three Hizbullah fighters.
In the event of a settlement in south Lebanon the Army will lose its principal role with the UN. In anticipation of this, it has been considering a similar role in the Balkans, possibly in Kosovo where the intention is to establish a multi-national peace force backed by NATO.
In such an event it would almost certainly be the case that the State would join the NATO-led military alliance Partnership for Peace (PfP).
Also, any role in the Balkans would require the Army to have a properly mechanised infantry which would use the 40 armoured personnel carriers which are to be ordered shortly.