Will the Stormont Assembly fall before elections in May?

Another week, another set of threats by the Democratic Unionist Party to collapse the Stormont Assembly and Executive, one that could leave Northern Ireland without local rule for years, if it happens.

It began with the First Minister, the Lagan Valley Assembly member Paul Givan, who warned the North's power-sharing institutions were "not sustainable in their current form" and there was an "inevitability" Stormont would collapse if issues around the Northern Ireland protocol are not resolved to unionists' satisfaction.

Wearily, the other parties responded. "Pathetic", said the SDLP leader Colum Eastwood; "embarrassing", said Alliance leader Naomi Long.

Yet the read from Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, is that this time Givan's language is different: "He was looking longer-term. To me that's saying, if there's not a satisfactory resolution we won't go back into government necessarily [on] the other side of the Assembly election.

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“Don’t expect us to come back into devolved power-sharing if you’ve not given us a satisfactory deal on the protocol.

“That to me was a slightly nuanced message and in some ways it makes more strategic sense than the pre-Assembly election collapse of the institutions.”

The approaching Assembly elections – which must be held by May at the latest – has brought the question of when, as well as if, sharply into focus. If the DUP does, eventually, follow through with its threat, when will it be – before or after the election?

Some commentators, including David McCann, deputy editor of the political website Slugger O’Toole, are talking about May 5th as a likely date; this would require the Assembly to rise by the end of March, giving a narrow window for the DUP to capitalise on any gains which might flow from their action or to remedy the damage before voters go to the polls.

For McCann, under the current Stormont rules, it is already too late; there is “no real point” in the Northern Secretary calling an election any earlier than May 5th.

“All it would do would stop all those bills – on organ donation, on stalking – that are currently making their way through the Assembly...and remember, Northern Ireland is still in this Omicron wave, it would be difficult to walk out of the Executive in the middle of that.

“My reading is that they are positioning for after the election, when they may try and strike a bargain for going back in.”

‘It’s madness’

The difficulty, says a former DUP special adviser, is that to walk out now would be little more than “symbolic” – particularly so near an election when the Assembly will rise anyway – and risks being seen as a “cynical election stunt” which could backfire at the polls.

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson is "damned if he does and damned if he doesn't", as not to follow through on his threat will be slammed as weakness by his political opponents; conversely, it could be regarded as a demonstration of strength on the protocol which could bolster the DUP vote.

“The DUP will be looking to bring back about another 3 per cent [in the election], and they have to consider, what is the best way of doing that?”

“It’s madness, it would be disastrous electorally,” says Tonge. “If there’s one thing that’s going to bring the DUP’s vote down it’s collapsing the institutions, plus it makes no sense this side of the election.

“But if the DUP pulls off a minor miracle and keeps the first ministership, then the DUP holds the aces, so why collapse them now and take the risk?

“So it makes no sense in electoral terms. Does it make sense in political terms? Yes, a little bit more, in that you put pressure on the British government that if they don’t deliver in the negotiations with the EU then they could be collapsing in effect the Good Friday Agreement and devolved power-sharing, which would be a major headache for the British government.”

Donaldson has been consistent about the threat posed by the protocol; as he put it in his maiden speech the day after his election in June, “the protocol threatens, not me. The protocol threatens the stability of the political institutions”.

‘No choice’

As negotiations between the UK and the EU have dragged on, so too has his deadline, though DUP sources point to the movement from the EU on medicines as evidence of how the strategy is working.

Donaldson’s timeframe sits around the end of January, though experience would indicate this will slip. Negotiations, however, cannot continue indefinitely and the Minister for Foreign Affairs has said they should not “drift on” past February because of the forthcoming election.

This could force the DUP’s hand: “Jeffrey Donaldson doesn’t want to be in a position to do this,” says a senior party source, “but if the [UK]government doesn’t recognise the strength of feeling then he has no choice.”

Yet there are other pitfalls ahead. Another of the North’s perennially contentious issues is that of Irish language legislation, with the so-called cultural package agreed as part of the New Decade, New Approach (NDNA) deal which restored Stormont in 2020 and is expected to be passed through Westminster shortly.

Such “cherry picking” of NDNA commitments “only serves to undermine devolution”, Donaldson told the Irish News on Friday, warning that if it proceeds it “puts the stability of the political institutions at risk”.

The path to the election is beset with pitfalls; says the former DUP special adviser: “If I was Jeffrey what I would do is consider how can I hold a tough enough line where it looks like I’m the only leader who’s going to make serious change and inroads into the protocol, and at the same time cross my fingers and hope nothing bad happens with the protocol before the election.”

The week ended as it began. “We’re now six months on from the UK government’s Command Paper where they said six months ago the conditions had been met to trigger Article 16, and six months later, nothing has happened,” Donaldson told reporters on Friday.

“That is not a sustainable position, and if the UK government isn’t prepared to act, I am.”