Varadkar secures support of more than half FG councillors

Leo Varadkar has now secured the support of over half of all Fine Gael councillors across the country, with just under a third backing his leadership rival Simon Coveney.

Supporters of Mr Coveney, however, maintain he can still win the race to succeed Taoiseach Enda Kenny when the votes are counted in Dublin’s Mansion House on Friday.

They say Mr Coveney can win as much as 70 per cent support among the 21,000 rank-and-file members who are entitled to vote, although Fine Gael officials expect that turnout will only be around 50 per cent.

The turnout in parts of Mr Coveney’s Cork base was around 60 per cent earlier this week.

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However, the Coveney camp acknowledges it needs a number of members of the parliamentary party who have declared for Mr Varadkar to switch their support if they are to have any chance of victory.

Ballot box

Mr Coveney’s team say they have lined up at least two members of the parliamentary party who will switch sides in the privacy of the ballot box, with Mr Varadkar’s supporters countering by saying they have three who have declared for the Minister for Housing but will support the Minister for Social Protection.

Supporters of Mr Varadkar have also claimed some junior ministers have been offered Cabinet positions by the Coveney camp, although this is strenuously denied.

According to The Irish Times leadership tracker, Mr Varadkar now has the support of 119 of the 234 party councillors , with Mr Coveney on 73. A further 42 are either not saying who they are backing or have yet to decide.

It means Mr Varadkar has the support of just under 51 per cent of all councillors, with Mr Coveney slightly above 30 per cent. Of all of those who have said how they are voting, Mr Varadkar is on 62 per cent to Mr Coveney’s 38 per cent.

Members of Mr Varadkar’s team believe they will win a majority of all councillors but will not breach the 60 per cent mark among this section of the electoral college that decides the Fine Gael leadership race.

Breakdown

The electoral college allocates 65 per cent to TDs, senators and MEPs, 10 per cent to councillors and 25 per cent to party members. Mr Varadkar holds a commanding lead in the parliamentary party, with 46 declarations of support, compared to Mr Coveney’s 21. Six parliamentary party members have not said who they are supporting.

Overall, it puts Mr Varadkar on 46 per cent of all available votes in the electoral college, with Mr Coveney on 22 per cent.

Members of both camps believe that the breakdown among party members will be tight, and expect only a narrow victory for either candidate.

Mr Coveney’s supporters have sketched out a number of scenarios they say show the Minister for Housing will still do well, and could possibly win the contest if some parliamentary party members switch.

These range from an outcome of 42.3 per cent of the electoral college to 47.3 per cent for Mr Coveney, even before any possible switching.

The best case scenario gives Mr Coveney his existing support within the parliamentary party, as well as all of the six votes of those who have yet to declare. It also gives him 55 per cent of councillors and 70 per cent of the party membership.

Meanwhile, Independent Clare TD Michael Harty is considering his position ahead of a Dáil vote on a new taoiseach.

Dr Harty supported Mr Kenny in a knife-edge vote last year.