Summers getting drier but winters getting wetter, forecaster says

We could be experiencing drier summers and wetter winters in the future, Ray McGrath, Met Éireann's head of research and applications, told a Teagasc conference in Dublin on weather and farming yesterday.

He said it was difficult to be more specific, particularly where extreme weather was concerned, and more work needed to be done. However, if summers became drier, water shortages would become an issue for farmers. Changes in climate could also have an impact on animal and plant diseases.

He said Met Éireann records showed a robust warming trend in recent decades, consistent with the global picture. An increase in rainfall was also evident but this may be partly attributed to natural variability.

Mr McGrath said Met Éireann produced extended forecasts and seasonal forecasts but was reluctant to give them out because they were not as accurate as short-range forecasts and they could affect the credibility of the weather service.

“Monthly and seasonal forecasts are equivalent to a horse race, essentially,” he said, and it was up to the user to exercise their judgment.

He showed forecast charts for Christmas week, and said the "favourite" suggested temperatures were likely to be about 3 degrees below normal but this was just one forecast out of about 50. Mr McGrath was asked by a farmer in the audience if Met Éireann would incorporate predictions from people such as Ken Ring in its forecasts.

The long-range forecaster from New Zealand was credited with having predicted the summer heatwave. He has predicted an extremely cold start to 2014 with the possibility of temperatures of below -10 degrees in the northeast. He has also predicted a bitterly cold February, with the likelihood of snow around St Valentine's Day.

'Thorn in our side'
Mr McGrath said Mr Ring was "a thorn in our side" and there was nothing scientific about his forecasts. "He's basically just looking at the lunar cycle. There is no scientific basis at all for his projections."

The farmer said there may be nothing scientific about Mr Ring’s system “but if his system works that’s all we’re worried about”.

Asked about Mr McGrath’s comments, Mr Ring said what he did, by observing the moon, sun, cyclical and predictable orbiting of the planets, was “rock solid science”.

“It would very, very weird if the moon, from only 10 earth circumferences away, had absolutely no effect on the atmosphere, especially when the daily lunar-related atmospheric tide is an established scientific fact.

“There is room for alternative viewpoints in science. In fact, historically it has often been mavericks that have changed science and advanced it forward.

“Met Éireann is a fine organisation, brilliant at short-range weather. But surely there is a parallel place for long-range systems, especially when they have been found to work.”

Mr McGrath also said Met Éireann was planing to re-analyse past climate next year and to provide more detailed information to help agricultural research.

The Teagasc conference was held to look at future weather patterns and the impact they could have on farming.

Philip O'Brien of the Environmental Protection Agency said there was very little information in Ireland for farmers on managing climate change.

Information
"We cannot take the information from other people. We have to develop our own information for our own farmers."

Teagasc research director Dr Frank O’Mara said there was evidence of greater extremes in weather, particularly in rainfall, but there was still a lot of uncertainty about the future. “But it’s clear we’re on a pathway of increasing change and increasing volatility in our weather, so that obviously has implications for agriculture.”