Stormont warning a call for return to ‘Big House’ politics

Peter Robinson spells it out quite bleakly that if there is not a comprehensive attempt to end the current sour and dysfunctional politics in Northern Ireland that the inevitable result is the collapse of Stormont.

He is proposing a longstanding solution - a return to Big House politics. It has served Northern Ireland fairly well in the past and probably is the only means of resolving the current impasse.

At previous times of crisis high-powered negotiations have been held in grand houses such as Lancaster House, Weston Park, Leeds Castle and Hillsborough Castle and it seems that another stately pile may be required to bring the Northern parties back to serious negotiation mode.

Robinson himself in his article in today’s Belfast Telegraph spells it out, suggesting that St Andrews-type talks are necessary to dig Northern politics out of a big hole.

Those negotiations took place in a grand hotel in St Andrews in 2006 rather than some Blandings Castle-style setting but the same principle applies - the British and Irish governments and the Northern parties need to be locked behind four walls (whether baronial or not) for an intensive period of talks to tackle a range of issues.

St Andrews created the conditions for the current manifestation of the Northern Executive which has survived without suspension for more than seven years.

The First Minister focuses on how the issue of welfare reform is threatening Stormont. Sinn Fein, with the support of the SDLP, has dug in its heels against welfare change which is applying in the Britain.

The problem is Westminster in turn is responding by imposing fines that will increase on a yearly basis. These annually could be around £250 million, according to the DUP finance Minister Simon Hamilton.

In addition because Northern Ireland is going it alone on welfare reform a new separate expensive computer system will be required in the North to implement welfare payments.

Robinson has estimated that the total cost could be £1 billion annually, which is ten per cent of the annual £10 billion net block grant that the British government pays Stormont to keep Northern Ireland running.

That may be a considerably exaggerated figure but there is no doubting that the cost is high and that consequently departmental budgets will suffer.

But this is bigger than welfare reform. The problem is that there is also a range of other issues that, in particular, divide the DUP and Sinn Fein and could bring down Stormont. These include parades, the past and flags, the Irish language, what happens the Maze site and allowing the National Crime Agency - described as Britain's FBI - operate in Northern Ireland in the face of Sinn Fein and SDLP opposition.

So, what Robinson proposes make eminent sense. Indeed there was an element of inevitability about his suggestion for wide-ranging talks.

Already McGuinness in an initial response has indicated a certain willingness to run with Robinson’s idea. The Deputy First Minister complained about the First Minister’s “counter-productive megaphone or media-based negotiations” but in more conciliatory mood said, “We have overcome enormous challenges in the past by treating each other with a degree of respect. With the support and engagement of the two governments and the US administration I’m confident we can find a resolution to our current difficulties.”

None of this will be a surprise to the British and Irish governments. Indeed there seems to be a degree of choreography to what is happening. At the weekend the Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan told The Irish Times that the Irish and British governments believed that in the coming weeks it was "absolutely essential" that the Northern parties devised a "comprehensive" means of breaking the logjam.

So, whether it’s big house or little house the way forward seems to be back to the future and hothouse political horsetrading.