Simon Harris will need to rebuild his political capital in FG

It was just after tea time last Saturday when it looked as if the other Simon could become the biggest political casualty of the Fine Gael leadership contest.

Leo Varadkar had been asked at his campaign launch that morning if there would be a place in his Cabinet, if he becomes Fine Gael leader and taoiseach, for the two Simons opposing his bid: Coveney, his rival candidate, and Harris, Coveney's most senior supporter.

Varadkar said there would be a place on his team for Coveney, but dodged the question on Harris.

Leadership campaigns are about winners and losers, and one of the more dramatic sub plots to this contest has been the fall in Harris’s political fortunes, for now at least.

Fine Gael leadership outcome may shape Irish politics for foreseeable future

---

Vincent Browne: Varadkar will move Fine Gael to right with his Tea Party politics

---

Fine Gael leadership: ‘inevitable’ Varadkar victory riles base

---

Fine Gael leadership: Varadkar not fearful of losing supporters

---

Aged just 29 when he was appointed Minister for Health last year, his future in Cabinet is now in question. Harris himself realises there may not be a place for him around a Cabinet table chaired by Varadkar.

The Wicklow TD has enemies in the parliamentary party, which some put down to envy because of his rapid ascent in recent years, yet many deputies question if he can be trusted.

Dropping out of the race

After the opening of Varadkar’s campaign on Saturday, speculation about the prospect of Coveney dropping out of the race circulated, although the Cork South Central TD insisted he would not do so.

That afternoon, Harris advised Coveney of his view that it may no longer be viable for the Minister for Housing to hang on, but said he would support him no matter what choice he made.

Coveney was ploughing on with a rally in Cork that evening, which some speculated he would use to withdraw from the contest.

The most pungent rumours are spread during leadership contests and heaves, when the power structure of a political party is in flux and even a whisper can influence the incoming order.

The first centring on Harris was that he had pulled out of the Coveney rally in Cork. In truth, Harris was indeed due to miss the event, but for personal reasons. He had already committed to attending Coveney’s manifesto launch the following morning in Dublin.

Yet, around 6pm last Saturday, Harris abandoned his dinner, dropped everything and drove himself to Cork. To have Coveney without his only Cabinet backer at his side would have been devastating.

Dangerous rumour

At the rally that evening, Coveney praised Harris, but another, more dangerous rumour was ripping through Fine Gael.

It cast Harris as an opportunist seeking his own ends and leadership ambitions, but was vehemently denied. The anti-Harris rumour mill had reached its apogee.

The Minister for Health has this week continued to campaign for Coveney’s cause at rallies around the country as some of his parliamentary party colleagues speculated that Varadkar could drop him from Cabinet, which is unlikely.

Yet that Harris was the subject of such rumours speaks somewhat to his standing in the parliamentary party. His abilities are undoubted, although a number of recent issues in the health sector, such as the emergency departments crisis and the controversy over the National Maternity Hospital, have caused some damage.

One TD called him “fundamentally untrustworthy”, citing a close relationship with the media. But those who admire Harris say there is no evidence for this alleged slipperiness.

It is a widely held view in Leinster House that Varadkar and Harris are not best friends. There was always some professional rivalry, but those inside the party say the relationship deteriorated after this Government took office.

Undermine his predecessor

Varadkar supporters believe Harris has worked to undermine his predecessor in the Department of Health, to such an extent that his hand is now seen in things in which he took no part.

“If he gets demoted, it won’t be out of vengeance or anything,” said one TD. “It will about whether you can trust the people in key positions around you.”

Another said Harris's mission was always to "get up the ladder" but that he got "burned on the way up" and suggested that his support of Coveney over a possible leadership run by Frances Fitzgerald, his political mentor, had been viewed dimly.

A Fitzgerald candidacy was never a real possibility, however, and those close to the Tánaiste say it did not damage the extremely close relationship between teacher and pupil.

“She would have raised an eyebrow, but would it have damaged their relationship? No,” said one source.

If Varadkar wins and takes up office in the Department of the Taoiseach, it is still unlikely that Harris's worst case scenario of being sacked from Cabinet will come to pass.

But many in Fine Gael believe he needs to patiently rebuild his political capital. He has time. He is only 30 after all.

“He has serious work to do in the short to medium term. He needs to shut his mouth. He is very bright, he is very political. He is not someone you want to have as an enemy but he just needs to calm down.”

The same, of course, was often said of Varadkar in the past, mostly by those who were then at the very apex of power in Fine Gael.