Peter Robinson’s walkout smacks of desperation as Stormont limps on

There was great confusion but not much relief, as Bob Dylan more or less said, at Stormont yesterday.

But behind the chaos, one of two things was happening: the main protagonists were engaging in the blame game as a prelude to the crash of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly; or by a desperate and circuitous route First Minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson bought more time to see if the powersharing institutions can be saved.

Big questions also arise as to whether what is clearly a dysfunctional administration is worth salvaging, and if it isn't what would be the point of holding elections to another dysfunctional administration? And how can the Departments of Health, Social Development and Enterprise operate when their DUP Ministers – Simon Hamilton, Mervyn Storey and Jonathan Bell – have resigned with immediate effect?

That last question is easy: the departments, for the moment at least, will be run by civil servants.

And why is Arlene Foster taking over as acting First Minister and also holding on to her post as Minister of Finance? For at least two reasons. While she is acting First Minister she can, under Executive rules, prevent the Executive from meeting, which is in line with the Executive boycott announced by Robinson. The Executive can be convened only by agreement of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister.

As Minister of Finance she can also hold on to the purse strings and refuse to divvy out money to the Sinn Féin, SDLP and Alliance Ministers still running their departments.

Robinson said he was “standing aside” as First Minister, which is not the same as resigning. He is still “technically” a First Minister. Quite how that can be is hard to fathom but there you are, that’s how it is.

Had he resigned, under legislation, as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Theresa Villiers said yesterday, she would have been compelled to bring an end to the Executive and Assembly and call Assembly elections. But he didn't resign.

Blame game

It all seems like crazy politics but there is a certain logic to the lunacy, which brings us neatly to the blame game. Had Robinson resigned he would have been held responsible for collapsing Stormont. But Stormont limps on for another while.

Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness could accept the dysfunctional argument and judge that in the current circumstances he has no option but to resign. But he would then be blamed for bringing down the powersharing administration. Sinn Féin would prefer to avoid that.

It is also possible that this isn’t about recrimination and who takes the rap for crashing the institutions.

Perhaps on Monday when Villiers and Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan gather at Stormont House the five main parties will make a genuine effort to solve the problems caused by the status of the IRA following the killing of Belfast republican Kevin McGuigan, not to mention the deadlock over welfare.

At the start of this week, Robinson set out to buy time to determine if talks could resolve these issues. He asked for an adjournment of the Assembly. Ulster Unionist Party leader Mike Nesbitt, due to inter-unionist rivalry, left him hanging out to dry, ironically just as Ian Paisley and Robinson did to David Trimble when he was trying to hold Stormont together.

Sinn Féin could have supported Robinson but McGuinness’s line was if Robinson walked, that was fine: Sinn Féin was ready for Assembly elections.

No help there. Taoiseach Enda Kenny saw the merit and logic of adjournment and invited SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell to Dublin yesterday to try to persuade him to assist Robinson. Adjournment would buy four to six weeks for talks – what was wrong with that?

Word was that McDonnell might have been persuaded to support the adjournment but that the bulk of his party, terrified of Sinn Féin in a forthcoming election, didn’t allow him take that step.

Sacrificed

Alliance supported the DUP but it wasn't sufficient to carry the vote at the Assembly business committee. Afterwards, Alliance leader David Ford came out with an apposite quote: "It is said that John Hume and David Trimble sacrificed their parties for the sake of the peace process. The current leadership of the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP have sacrificed the peace process . . . for what?"

Sinn Féin Northern Ireland chairman Bobby Storey and north Belfast republicans Eddie Copeland and Brian Gillen, who were arrested on Wednesday in connection with McGuigan's killing, were released unconditionally, with Storey threatening to sue for wrongful arrest.

Gerry Adams, reflecting the line from other Sinn Féin leaders over recent days, said this all served to underline the "contrived nature of the current crisis in the political institutions in the North".

It can be said that through an exercise in political casuistry worthy of the most eminent Jesuit, Robinson has bought some time to determine if talks at Stormont House could still be resolved in this crisis. He may have two weeks and possible longer to answer that question.

If Robinson doesn’t renominate Ministers in seven days, the Assembly can trigger the d’Hondt mechanism in two weeks to replace the DUP and UUP Ministers who have resigned. That could create an Executive of Sinn Féin, SDLP and Alliance Ministers, which isn’t going to run. Equally, appointing new Ministers could be long-fingered pending the outcome of negotiations.

The problem is that it all smacks of desperation. Perhaps the talks Villiers and Flanagan hope to host on Monday will lead somewhere. But politics can only withstand a finite number of attempts at resuscitation. Stormont isn’t quite dead yet but the lifeblood is being sucked out of it.