Irish Times poll: It’s not always the economy, stupid

Until this week Sinn Féin had never outperformed both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll. The fact that it should happen just before an election is seismic.

The natural order of politics in Ireland – either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil on top – has been upset only once before at a time of economic crisis – in 2010 voters lost faith in the two main parties and Labour surged to 33 per cent in our September poll of that year.

What is intriguing about this latest upset is that it has happened without any obvious crisis or catalyst, such as an economic downturn or political scandal.

There has also been a curious collapse in the Government’s satisfaction rating. As recently as October last year, 42 per cent of voters were satisfied with how the Government was running the country. Yet just a few months later this satisfaction rating has halved, down to just 21 per cent in this latest poll.

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An explanation is needed for this sudden and precipitous decline in Government satisfaction.

For an answer we need look no further than health and housing. When voters were asked to give their view on what should be the priority for an incoming taoiseach, health (42 per cent) and housing (34 per cent) dominated.

Challenges in health and housing are, arguably, generational and global, with no quick-fix solutions. Yet frustration with what voters see as a lack of progress has spilled over into this election, crowding out the Government’s achievements in other areas. The mood of voters has changed, even if the facts have not.

What has facilitated this change of mood is the performance of our economy. Turn the clock back five years and the two most pressing issues for voters were jobs and the economy. The recovery has meant that jobs and the economy have taken a back seat, allowing health and housing to move front and centre.

A growing economy has also given us permission to think less about how wealth is created and more about how wealth is shared.

A majority of voters in our latest poll would like to see either most (18 per cent) or a little (52 per cent) of the surplus generated by a strong economy devoted to reducing taxes. About one in four (27 per cent) would not like to see any reduction.

Surplus resources

Opinion regarding whether surplus resources should be used to reduce taxes varies by party. At one end of the spectrum are Green voters, of whom only 48 per cent would like to see taxes reduced. At the other end are Sinn Féin voters, of whom three in four (75 per cent) are in favour of lowering taxes.

The RIC commemoration has also emerged as an issue during this campaign. The decision to postpone is endorsed by a majority (68 per cent) of voters generally, and by a majority of supporters of each of the main parties.

It has long been held that elections are won or lost on the economy. Whatever the outcome of the election on Saturday, this piece of conventional wisdom has been severely dented by the findings of this latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

The main party of Government, Fine Gael, has received no electoral dividend from having overseen a recovery in the economy, nor have Fianna Fáil for their role in supporting the Government. It’s not always the economy, stupid.