Irish neutrality may face questions as EU leaders gather on defence

Taoiseach Micheál Martin travels to Versailles in France this week for a meeting of EU leaders against a background of the greatest shock to Europe's security since the end of the Cold War and amid calls from several EU leaders for a new era in European defence.

Officials were still frantically preparing for the talks amid expectations that a statement will be agreed about a future EU defence pact and reports that French president Emmanuel Macron will propose an unprecedented €200 billion to pay for the EU's enhanced defence and new energy sources needed to wean the bloc off Russian oil and gas imports.

Sources in Dublin and in Europe are cautious about what will be on the table in Versailles on Friday. There were reports in recent days suggesting that Macron was ready to propose a common defence fund, financed by joint debt, to underpin a new wave of defence and energy spending among member states in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Yet these have been downplayed by senior officials, while the German finance minister Christian Lindner also poured cold water on the reports.

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Officials on Wednesday said they did not yet have a clear picture of what Macron would present, but suggested that any firm decisions by EU leaders, either on new defence capacity, how it is structured and how it is paid for, won't happen until a formal EU Council meeting in Brussels towards the end of this month (the Versailles meeting on Friday is an "informal" meeting).

Co-operation

But there is little doubt in Irish Government circles about the general direction the EU is likely to move: officials and politicians expect that there will be proposals for much greater co-operation in defending the EU. Even before the Russian invasion Macron had signalled his intention to progress the idea of a common EU defence; since the attack on Ukraine a fortnight ago the momentum behind the idea has been turbo-charged.

Germany, the EU's leading dove on Russia, has done a 180 degree turn to hawkishness. Central and eastern European states, some of whom share a border with Russia and have still vivid memories of Soviet domination, are clamouring for greater EU coherence on defence.

According to one former official, summarising how he believes the exchanges will proceed, puts it like this: "Ireland will say, 'wait, we would need to have a referendum on this'. And the EU will say, 'okay, when are you having it?"'

The Danes, several officials pointed out, are having a referendum in June to overturn their opt-out on EU security and defence policy.

Few people in Government are willing to consider out loud taking on the task of winning a referendum that would change Ireland’s neutral status. But, equally, few people are willing to say that it won’t happen either.