Give Me a Crash Course In . . . Fianna Fáil’s popularity

Did I hear that right? Is Fianna Fáil back on top?

Well, yes, in a manner of speaking. The latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll was published on Thursday, and it showed support for Fianna Fáil rising by four points since early October, to 30 per cent, putting the party three points ahead of Fine Gael and establishing its clear lead as the most popular party.

This isn’t the first time Fianna Fáil has occupied the top spot this year: a poll in the summer showed a jump in support since the election, though it fell back in the October survey. The best summary seems to be that Fianna Fáil has recovered sufficiently from the, ah, late unpleasantness to regain its big-party status. Its support is not as big as it once was, but it is running somewhere in the mid-to late 20s. Fine Gael is a little behind. The big two are still the big two; they’re just not as big as they were.

Have people forgotten that Fianna Fáil drove the country off a cliff?

That’s unlikely. But what appears to be happening is that people who previously voted for Fianna Fáil, and abandoned the party in the wake of the crash, are returning to their ancestral home. Micheál Martin’s consistent message since he took over the party leadership is that Fianna Fáil has changed, and has learned from the mistakes of the past. That’s why he was so quick to rebuff the overtures from Drumcondra to rehabilitate Bertie Ahern.

People also seem to have decided that, culpable and all as the party may have been for disastrous decisions in government, the recent history of Ireland is more complicated than simply blaming Fianna Fáil for everything. And Fine Gael hasn’t offered a radically different vision of Ireland than Fianna Fáil did.

It’s a pretty remarkable recovery, all the same.

In the wake of the 2011 general election – as the party never tires of reminding people – many observers wondered if the party wouldn’t simply wither and die, so great was its evisceration at the ballot box. Now it stands a sporting chance of leading the next government.

Does this make Fine Gael nervous?

Yes. But there was good news for the Government in the poll, too. Satisfaction with the Government is up, and Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s approval rating has jumped to its highest level since 2012. In that sense, the poll is good news for that much put-upon entity, the political centre.

Anything else interesting in the poll?

It also found that voters have quite definite ideas about how the Government should spend any extra resources available. Given a menu of preferences, voters were clear that the Government should spend extra money on roads, schools, hospitals, etc and on hiring more public servants, rather than on public sector pay increases, tax cuts or increased welfare payments. In other words, voters want more public servants, rather than better paid public servants – possibly because (as the poll also found) most people believe public servants have better pay and pensions than their counterparts in the private sector.

But aren’t polls completely discredited?

Ah now. There have, it is true, been some pretty embarrassing failures for the polling industry in recent years. But often these are a result of people misconstruing and over-reporting what the data says, rather than due to flaws in the data itself. It's important to understand what polls don't tell you, as well as what they do. And worth noting that The Irish Times/Ipsos exit poll on the night of this year's general election got the result pretty much spot on.