Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly has said he is hopeful the worst-case scenario of the impact of the Covid-19 Delta variant presented by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) will not come to pass.
Mr Donnelly said he did not understand how any member of the Cabinet could have been surprised that advice from the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac) on using AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson for the under-40s was not factored into Nphet’s latest modelling, which prompted the Government to halt the reopening of indoor hospitality from July 5th.
He told Newstalk’s Pat Kenny Show it had not been possible for Nphet to include Niac’s recommendation as the modelling was completed over the weekend and Niac made its recommendation on Monday.
The Minister said the health group carried out modelling on an ongoing basis and was not trying to be unhelpful with its latest projections.
Nphet said that in the worst-case scenario almost 700,000 cases and more than 2,000 deaths could occur over July, August and September.
Prof Philip Nolan, chairman of Nphet’s epidemiological modelling advisory group, sought to explain the modelling used to advise Government in a series of Twitter posts on Wednesday.
‘Very significant damage’
He said the general resumption of indoor hospitality from next Monday would have risked significant surges in cases, with the Delta variant potentially causing “very significant damage” if allowed to spread in a partially vaccinated population.
“While 70-80 per cent of cases will be in people under 40, there will be a lot of infections and a lot of adverse outcomes in people over 40,” he said. “About 70 per cent of the hospitalisations and over 99 per cent of the deaths would be in people over 40.
“Why would this happen if everyone is vaccinated? Vaccines offer extraordinary protection, but not perfect. We have almost 500,000 people aged 70 and over. Even if the vaccine is 95 per cent effective in preventing severe disease, 25,000 people remain vulnerable.”
Mr Donnelly pointed out that in Scotland, where the population was largely vaccinated, there had been a record number of positive cases in one day this week.
The UK had more positive cases of Covid at present than the entire EU, he added.
“We have to hope for the best, but plan for the worst,” he said.
When asked why Ireland could not adopt vaccination passport schemes that had been used successfully in other European countries, Mr Donnelly said many people in the hospitality sector had said it was not “implementable” for them. This was why the Government wanted to work with the sector to find a scheme that worked for them,” Mr Donnelly said.
Antigen testing
The Minister said he hoped the expert group on antigen testing would provide more information on how such testing could be used effectively.
Although Nphet had a more negative view on the value of antigen testing, the Minister said he respected the views of both sides but that he ultimately had to make decisions.
He said Ireland had one of the highest vaccine uptake rates in Europe across all age groups but that there was still likely to be a spike in Delta variant cases.
Up to Tuesday, more than 4.1 million doses had been given. Almost 1.6 million people have received both doses and, some 72,000 single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccines have been administered.
Mr Donnelly acknowledged that despite there being strong biosecurity measures at the country’s borders, Northern Ireland remained a back door that was difficult to tackle.
Earlier, infectious diseases expert Prof Sam McConkey said the inclusion of the updated Niac advice would not have significantly changed the stark warning on the Delta variant’s potential impact in Nphet’s models.
He said he had examined the models used and understood the decision to pause plans to reopen the indoor hospitality sector.
Prof McConkey told Newstalk Breakfast said including the vaccine changes would not have made a huge difference to the worst case scenario as “most of the bad cases” would be among older people.
He said having more young people vaccinated would improve the pandemic situation “but only by a small amount”.
Other approaches
Prof McConkey said other public health approaches could be implemented such as antigen testing, which was successful in identifying positive cases. This type of rapid testing could be used for large-scale sporting and music events, he said.
However, he warned some of the antigen tests that emerged earlier in the pandemic did not live up to the manufacturer’s claims.
On the same programme, Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien called for antigen testing to be used more widely.
Mr O’Brien said he really believed antigen testing had a key role to play as part of the “corona pass” system while the vaccination programme was expanded.
Restaurants Association of Ireland chief executive Adrian Cummins said options such as antigen testing and PCR testing needed to be discussed in detail to find a viable solution to get hospitality businesses back open. He said all options were on the table when it came to plans to reopen the sector.
“We are working to have a solution in place so we can get our businesses back open. We have a blank sheet of paper, we are open to all options on the table,” he told Newstalk Breakfast.