Could Garda investigation prevent Varadkar’s return as Taoiseach?

The Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar is set to become Taoiseach, for the second time, under the first rotating leader coalition in the State before Christmas.

On December 15th Micheál Martin will step down and the leader of Fine Gael is due to take over for as long as the Government stays in power, which could be up to two-and-a-half years, if the Coalition runs full-term.

But a Garda investigation into the leaking by Varadkar of a document to a friend in April 2019 is ongoing and the pressure on him is growing as a result.

The story broke in Village magazine after which Varadkar told the Dáil in November 2020 that he had given a copy of an agreement between the State and the Irish Medical Organisation to Maitiú Ó Tuathail, then president of a rival GP organisation, the National Association of General Practitioners.

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He apologised for what he described as an error of judgment and survived a vote of no confidence in the Dáil. But the story did not go away and the investigation is continuing.

In a worst case scenario for the Fine Gael leader he could be facing charges by the time he is due to take over as Taoiseach in which case his position would most likely be untenable.

In a best case scenario, the investigation could be over and all talk of it forgotten.

The alternative is that the investigation remains ongoing in which case significant uncertainty will hang over Varadkar’s expected accession.

Jack Horgan Jones is a political reporter with The Irish Times and he talks to In the News about the background to the story and what it might mean for Irish politics in the year ahead.

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