Iraq on brink of civil war, warns crisis group

IRAQ: Since the bombing of the Shia Askari shrine in Samarra, Iraq has been teetering on the brink of disaster. This is the view put forward by the International Crisis Group (ICG) in its latest report entitled, The Next Iraq War? Sectarianism and Civil Conflict, issued this week.

The ICG, an independent NGO based in Brussels and Amman which specialises in conflict resolution analysis, said 2005 was "the year Iraq's latent sectarianism took wings." Elections "underscored the . . . prominence of religion," turned mosques into "party headquarters" and clerics into politicians.

The efforts of Sunni insurgents to "jumpstart civil war" have been met by revenge attacks by Shia militias, creating an escalating cycle of violence.

The ICG argues that the US appointment in July 2003 of ethnic and sectarian figures to the Iraqi Governing Council led to the organisation of governing bodies along communal lines.

"For the first time in the country's history, sectarianism and ethnicity became the formal organising principle of politics," the ICG states.

To halt Iraq's "downward slide and avert civil war," the ICG made several recommendations. The parties that won the parliamentary election should establish a "government of genuine national unity" in which Sunnis would have a real role.

This government should attempt to restore a sense of national identity and provide safety, jobs, electricity and fuel.

The key ministries of foreign affairs, interior, defence, finance, planning and oil should be divided among the largest five electoral coalitions, with either defence or interior going to a non-sectarian Sunni or Shia. Senior posts within ministries should be given to competent candidates rather than party stalwarts.

"Substantive changes" should be made to the constitution, including a total revision of key articles permitting the formation of autonomous federal regions, and placing future oil revenues at the disposal of regional administrations rather than the central government.

The ICG warns that, unless amended, the constitution is "a blueprint for [ Iraq's] dissolution" rather than a document which binds.

Sectarian attacks by security forces should be stopped, and militias should be disbanded and their members integrated into communally mixed units which should be deployed on a national basis. Ministers of defence and interior and commanders should be chosen for their professionalism.

Former members of the Baath party should not be excluded from the government and security services unless they have committed crimes. "De-Baathification" should be conducted by a non-partisan body rather than the current Shia-run commission.

Donors should provide funds to ministries organised on a non-sectarian basis which are competent and transparent. Funds should be withheld from ministries infected with cronyism and graft.

Although part of the problem rather than part of a solution, US forces should remain in the country to prevent ethnic and sectarian violence from spiralling out of control.

Iraq's neighbours, including Iran, should be enlisted to help resolve the crisis and should be invited to attend the planned reconciliation conference in Baghdad.