IRAN: Iran has so far adopted a positive approach to the European proposal delivered by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana on Tuesday because the proposal is a far better deal for Tehran than a reconciliation offer made to Washington in May 2003.
The European proposal, drawn up by Germany, France and Britain, backed by the US and approved by China and Russia, offers a package of incentives to Iran if it suspends uranium enrichment and submits its nuclear facilities to stringent monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
German chancellor Angela Merkel observed yesterday that Iran must halt enrichment operations before talks begin, while Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Iran's suspension must be matched by an end to discussions in the UN Security Council of a punitive resolution on Iran's nuclear programme.
Mr Lavrov repeated Moscow's reservations about sanctions and possible military action unless Tehran was clearly in breach of its international obligations and said an Iranian reply was expected by the end of June.
The incentives include European agreement to provide Iran with light water nuclear reactors - which cannot be used for weapons production - a guaranteed supply of fuel, the lifting of an embargo on spare parts for civilian aircraft and agreement to supply Iran with some nuclear technology. The plan's sponsors say they will support Iran's bid for membership of the World Trade Organisation.
The US, which cut ties to Tehran in 1979 after the overthrow of the shah, has also agreed to take part in multilateral talks with Iran and permit the export to Iran of agricultural equipment and dual-use goods, which have both civilian and military applications.
The US would supply Iran with technology for earthquake early warning systems and weather prediction. Washington has also dropped its insistence that Iran abandon uranium enrichment and has agreed that Tehran could maintain a small research programme under close IAEA supervision. The US is also said to be prepared to guarantee Iran's territorial integrity.
The package of incentives is backed up by the implicit threat of economic sanctions and, ultimately, US military action if Iran rejects the proposal.
For Iranian officials who drafted the much more modest 2003 "grand bargain", the European proposal must be a bonanza. In its "grand bargain", Iran promised to deal with US concerns over nuclear weapons and support for terrorism, co-ordinate policy on Iraq and sign on to the 2002 Arab summit offer to Israel of full normalisation in exchange for full Israeli withdrawal from Arab territory occupied in 1967.
As its part in the "grand bargain", Washington was asked to lift sanctions, recognise Iran's regional security interests and stop threatening regime change. The Bush administration ignored the "grand bargain" when it was put forward three years ago.
So far, the Iranian regime seems to be adopting a unified stance as well as a positive attitude toward the European proposal. There has been concern expressed in Washington and European capitals that hardliners, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, might try to scupper any agreement.
However, analysts argue he is not in charge. They say Iran's supreme guide, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, bolstered by the powerful National Security Council, will decide the fate of the proposal. While Ayatollah Khamenei has previously rejected direct talks with the US, he is acutely aware that Iran can no longer afford to be isolated internationally because the US has more fire-power in the region than Iran does.
The ayatollah ensured that Iran remained neutral during both the 1991 and 2003 US wars on Iraq and has stated repeatedly that Iran has no intention of building nuclear weapons, which he condemned as "unIslamic."
Experts familiar with Iran's nuclear programme say that it is a good moment for Iran to suspend enrichment because Iranian scientists have achieved the level required for nuclear reactor fuel, but this was a limited success with only one 164-centrifuge cascade.
