IRA now expected to issue statement this week

Expectations in Belfast have been rising steadily that the IRA will issue a definitive statement on its future later this week…

Expectations in Belfast have been rising steadily that the IRA will issue a definitive statement on its future later this week.

Northern Secretary Peter Hain said yesterday he wants an IRA statement soon which confirms "the only future for them is a peaceful one".

"I don't know when it will be," he said. "It has been promised now for quite a while. What is important, whenever it comes, is that it is a credible statement that makes it crystal clear that the only future for republicanism and indeed for the IRA is a peaceful and a democratic future," he told the BBC.

Meanwhile, Minister for Justice Michael McDowell has been told by senior security officials that Sinn Féin politicians Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Martin Ferris are no longer members of the IRA army council.

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He was told the three had resigned in a major reshuffle of the IRA's ruling body, and had been replaced by military figures from within the provisional movement.

The IRA has been debating a call made by Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams on April 6th for it to abandon armed struggle. A definitive response is expected later this week.

To that end Gen John de Chastelain and Andrew Sens of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning have remained in Ireland to facilitate any move by the IRA to put weapons "beyond use".

One reliable source also indicated to The Irish Times that Sinn Féin's chief negotiator Martin McGuinness is to travel to the US this week. The visit is timed to coincide with the anticipated IRA statement. However, Sinn Féin was unable to confirm or deny this last night.

Mr Hain will be in Belfast during the week should a statement be published. However, the Northern Ireland Office is insisting, both publicly and privately, it does not know precisely when the IRA will respond despite its calls for it to do so "sooner rather than later".

Mr Hain's public comments suggest a British government belief that the IRA does have a non-paramilitary future and will not go away.

It is understood there have been contacts between republicans and the British government in addition to the confirmed meetings between Mr Adams and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern throughout the IRA's consultation process.

Both governments are keen for the IRA to respond soon for fear of a loss of any sense of political momentum.

Unionists have been insisting that the IRA statement is irrelevant and that any new IRA mode will be judged by a verifiable abandonment of paramilitary activity.

SDLP sources are concerned that while the anticipated IRA statement may well break new ground, it will not go far enough in terms of a rejection of criminal activity. Some in the party harbour private fears that the two governments will talk up the significance of any statement, while fudging the question of IRA criminal activity.

The Democratic Unionists last night poured scorn on a report that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and Kerry North TD Martin Ferris had prepared the ground for a statement by stepping down from the army council of the IRA. The DUP's Ian Paisley junior said it was little more than a "stunt".

Up until the Westminster elections in May, Mr McDowell consistently maintained that Mr Adams, Mr McGuinness and Mr Ferris were members of the IRA's ruling body. This has been vehemently denied by all three.

A spokesman for Sinn Féin said yesterday it would not be commenting on the latest media reports about the make-up of the IRA's army council.

Mr McDowell has not spoken publicly about recent security briefings, but said last month he believed the army council was in the process of being changed. He also said he believed IRA activity would cease after a major IRA statement.